Lou’s Locks

Back for the 3rd installment of the Locks. Another 2-1 mark last week puts the overall tally at 4-2 (67%). Texas scoring 24 points in the last 12 minutes on TCU prevented a 3-0 week. I have added some people to the e-mail list, so if you have any issues with the Locks reply to me and not the entire group. I am sure most will appreciate not getting caught up in e-mail banter. Another tip of the cap to the guys at the Loserswithsocks blog site for posting last week’s Locks. Check out the site. It has some great pics of Florida fans up right now that are hysterical.

This week my complaint is directed again at ABC/ESPN and specifically the telecast crew of Brent Mussberger and Kirk Herbstriet. This is the #1 team? Are you kidding me? They need to put Mussberger out to pasture. He constantly detracts from the game by being overly dramatic. Also, how many times during the PSU/ND game did he scream “there is a receiver wide open!” To top it off his unabashed bias to the Big 10 and PAC 10 is nauseating. For the most part, I like Herbie. He is a solid analyst, with a great demeanor and does not seem to get caught up in all the media hoopla. However, during the Cal/UT game, after Ainge was hit and apparently fumbled, Herbie made one of the most ridiculous statements I have heard. During the replay, the officials were trying to determine whether Ainge’s arm was moving forward (incomplete v. fumble). Herbstreit stated confidently that it did not matter whether his arm was moving forward because the ball landed behind the QB. I thought that was a little odd. So I looked up the rule, and Herbstreit was dead wrong. I won’t bore you by quoting the rule, but it can be found at A.R. 2-19-2-1 and clearly states that where the ball lands is insignificant to determining whether it was an incomplete pass or a fumble. The question was whether his arm was moving forward or not. The #1 team at the mighty sports leader should do better than that.

RANDOM THOUGHTS AFTER 2 WEEKS
LSU and Okla. are very, very good football teams …….. So. Car. QB B. Mitchell has the biggest helmet/face mask combo I have ever seen …… the best broadcast crew in CFB is Mike Patrick and Todd Blackledge and they will be calling the Bama/Ark. game …… Speaking of the Bama/Ark. game, Ark. will be wearing 3 extra decals on their helmets this year: a small VT as an honor to Va. Tech, a JFB for retiring AD Broyles and a DN for former asst. Coach Danny Nutt. Sheeeeesh, I can’t figure out whether this is an influence from their patron son John Daly who is a walking billboard or more the NASCAR angle. In any event the numerous extra decals fits Arkansas perfectly ……. the media is so shameless, they are hyping the Mich/ND game (both 0-2) like it was a BCS bowl ….. Granny Holtz is incredulous, this week he said “the pressure is clearly on ND because it would be difficult for the Irish to make a 3rd straight BCS bowl starting out 0-3.” I laugh every time I read that quote. Now, on to the Locks.

1. USC -9.5 @ NEB Man was I delighted to see Granny Holtz give his weekly Pep Talk segment on ESPN to Nebraska. The “Holtz Fade” is in effect again (already 2-0 ATS). The Trojans have lost only 3 regular season games in the past 4 yrs, and have made a living on winning big road games. Pete Carroll with an extra week to prepare is money. Add in the fact that LSU and Okla are garnering talk of being #1, and USC should want to come out and make a statement. Don’t forget about the athletes they have as well. USC’s D is awesome and should be able to load up to stop Cornhusker RB M. Lucky. That puts the pressure squarely on Husker QB S. Keller (2 TDs and 3 INTs this year). Keller has played against USC before transferring from Ariz. St., and all he did in that game was throw 6 INTs. Also, Nebraska cannot generate enough pass rush to effect Trojan QB J.D. Booty. USC covers easily. USC 31 NEB 13.

2. WASH +4 V. O$U The Huskies are the early surprise the year so far in CFB by routing Syracuse in the Carrier Dome and ending the nation’s longest winning streak by beating Boise St. I wonder what Irish fans think about the state of affairs now? QB J. Locher is the real deal, but it is the Huskie D which is the story. They are stout against the run (holding Boise to under 100 yds) and can generate a pass rush (9 total sacks). O$U has just won the Ohio state championship by beating Youngstown St. and Akron and may be over valued due to last year’s success. QB T. Boeckman has struggled and the OL is average. Huskie LB EJ Savannah should be able to neutralize O$U RB C. Wells. The Buckeyes have a monster D, no doubt, but I like the home field and the points. WASH 17 O$U 16

3. TENN. +8 @ FLA OK, before the howling of homerism starts, I want to say that I was going to leave this game off the slate, but numerous complaints have been lodged that I am picking too many obscure games. I thought everyone liked $, but I guess not. So I am taking the marquee games as my locks and picking an “obscure game of the week” as a bonus. I am usually not a trends and angle type of handicapper, but some things jumped out at me in researching this game. In the SEC since ‘01, road dogs (teams playing on the road getting points) are 104-64 ATS (against the spread). Even more telling and more amazing. The Gators under Herban Meyer are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 SEC regular season games. Throw in the fact that 6 of the last 9 meetings between UT and UF have been decided by 4 or fewer points. I think that Florida is a little over valued by the public due to the ‘06 NC. Remember the Gators are replacing 9 starters on D and have a rookie QB. Teabag may be the next Johnny Unitas, but he still has to prove it against quality opposition. UT will be able to put points on the board and will try to establish the run to keep UF off the field. This game will come down to TOs and STs, IMO and I think the Vols have a shot at pulling off the upset. I really like getting the 8 points. TENN 31 FLA 28

OBSCURE GAME OF THE WEEK Take Kansas and lay the 23.5 points against Toledo. This line is moving fast (opened up at Kan. -21) so it may be higher by game time. This game should be called the “Shoney’s Big Boy Bowl” as both coaches are easily breaking the 350 lb. barrier. Kansas lost in 2 OTs last year in Toledo and wants some revenge. Kansas is averaging 57 points a game (yes, I said 57). Toledo has lost to Purdue and Cent. Mich. giving up 52 points in both games. BTW, Kansas beat Cent. Mich the first game this year 52-7. The Jayhawks pound Toledo. KAN 55 TOLEDO 10

Good Luck!