Lou’s Locks

Another 2-2 week last week as the Locks hit 2 out of 3 and the obscure game (Navy) failed to come through. That puts the overall tally this season at 8-6, above .500, but we gotta do better. Good slate of games this week, but I am going to stick close to home and pick all SEC teams.Before I get to the Locks, it struck me last weekend as I watched approximately 13 hours of CFB (not the norm, but I was at home on the couch with an ice pack recovering from “minor” surgery) that there was a proliferation of games on TV.  I mean I was watching bits and pieces of Navy/Duke, Kent St./Akron, Colo. St/Houston and Air Force/BYU. This is a relatively new phenomenon because I can easily recall when there were only 2 or 3 games on TV at most. If you wanted to really follow your team, you listened to the radio broadcast. Listening to those games on the radio was an unbelievable experience for me, and I think it was instrumental in developing my love for CFB. The great radio announcers like John Ward (UT), Caywood Ledford (UK), Jack Crystal (Miss St.), John Forney (Bama), Jim Fife (Auburn) and Larry Munson (UGA) brought the games to life with their passion and their unique ability to paint a picture in your mind. In fact, they made the games unforgettable for me.  I wonder if today’s youth will be as enthusiastic about the sport later in life now that all of these games are televised. Who knows it may increase the passion? However, there is no substitute for a great radio broadcast of CFB which is hard to come by these days. I still get chills up my spine when I hear an old broadcast of Ward calling the Vols’ game …… “What did he do? All he did was score. Give him six!!!!!! Touchdown Big Orange!!!!” Now on to the Locks.

1. BAMA +2.5 V. F$U @ JAX. It looks like the wrong team is favored in this one. The story lines are long and deep in this game with Booby Bowden being from B’ham and passed up for Curry as Bama’s HC back in the 80s to F$U having 2 former Saban assistants (Fisher and Trickett). It looks like strength against strength (Bama O v. F$U D) and weakness against weakness (F$U O v. Bama D). Give the edge to coaching and Saban in this one. Bama has plenty of weapons in RBs (Grant, Coffee and now Upchurch) and WRs (Hall, Brown, McCoy and Caddell) and needs a good game from JPW at QB. Jimbo Fisher v. Saban is a no brainer, IMO. The Noles are pretty bad on O, and if Bama can get up early and somehow generate a pass rush (103 in NCAA in sacks) QB Weatherford will have a rough day. Suspended Nole LB G. Hayes will play, but who is surprised by that?  BAMA 24 F$U 17

2. MISS ST. +13.5 @ SO CAR. Road underdogs in SEC conference games are 6-2 ATS this year so you gotta like double digit points. More importantly, this is a perfect match-up for the Bullies. So. Car. is generating next to no pass rush so they cannot take advantage of State’s porous OL. The Cocks are 11th in the SEC against the run, and State loves to pound the ball with RB A. Dixon. So. Car is trotting out inexperienced RS Frosh. QB C. Smelley against the 3rd ranked passing D in the SEC (yes, it is unbelievable I know) so we may see musical QBs from Spurrier again this weekend. Both teams will try and establish the run and this should be a low scoring, ugly affair. So car has more athletes and should win, but Bulldogs get the cover. SO CAR 16 STATE 10   

3. AUB +18.5 @ FLA  Another SEC road dog that I really like. I know the Mighty Gators are out of this world, but are they really 3 touchdowns better than the Tigers/War Eagles/Plainsmen? Clearly, this is the best DL that the Gators have faced to date. Groves, Sims, Thompson and Marks make up a nasty front four that should be able to disrupt Florida’s spread option some. If LB T. Blackmon plays this will help Auburn as well. However, I have to eat my words and say I was wrong about QB T. Teabag, dude has some skills. But if he runs the ball over 20 times against Auburn, it will be a close game. Florida’s weakness on D is clearly the secondary (Ole Siss had over 300 yds passing last week) and if Auburn can keep QB B. Cox upright (UF only has 7 sacks this year) then Auburn should be able to move the ball through the air.  Auburn also has the ability to run the ball with RBs B. Tate and M. Fannin. Additionally, Florida is far and away the most penalized team in the SEC (“Top 1% of the top 1%”, right Herban) and Tubbs is 8-1 straight up against top 10 teams. No one is giving Auburn a shot in this game and that is when they are the most dangerous. This game will be close throughout, and Auburn can not let UF get an early lead. And even if not, you have the possibility of a “back door cover.”  FLA 28 AUB 21  

OBSCURE GAME OF THE WEEK  Take Ark. St. -4 v. Memphis. This game goes tonight but is not televised which is kind of strange. Ark. St. is better than most think. They played Texas tough and were able to keep it close against UT for a half. Memphis just got throttled by UCF and may have already quit. They played 3 Qbs in that game. Ark. St on offense is #46 in the nation in total offense, #52 passing and #45 rushing. Memphis Defense is #109 overall, #104 against the pass and #111 against the run. This may be my favorite game of the year. Load up!  ARK ST 34 MEM 17.

Good Luck