Lou’s Locks

Week 7 in CFB and what an absolutely crazy year it has been. BC, South Florida and So. Car. all in the top 10 and things are changing weekly. The Locks went 2-2 last week for a yearly tally of 11-10-1. In a fictional betting account that would add up to exactly even for the year. The 10% “juice” or “vig” is paid on all loses which gets you to 0. But hey, Hank Goldberg, the capping expert at ESPN who picks NFL games is 4 games below .500, and he is getting paid for it. Got a good feeling about this week, so let’s stick a pencil in the eye of the bookie this week.

Before I get to the Locks, I thought I would share a little info on how I go about making my weekly selections. Most so called expert handicappers use “trends” and “angles” to make their picks. I am sure you have heard someone on the radio or read something that went like this “I like Wisconsin because they are 12-2 ATS when coming off a home loss of more than 10 points and are playing a conference opponent on natural grass in the month of October after the first full moon.” To me trends should be used mainly from what has occurred this year and possibly last year. CFB teams turnover a great deal due to graduation, so long trends over numerous years are kind useless. I look at team match-ups and team strengths and weaknesses, as well as just watching the games. Defense, OL, QB, coaching and turnover ratio are the most important, in that order, IMO. I recently read about a theory of “fading” (going against) the general public. It makes sense because they are still building huge casinos in Vegas. The theory is that you look and see who the “public” is betting heavy on (over 75% is break point) and if that team is on the road and a favorite (“road chalk”), you go the other way. I am going to track this theory and see how it does. This week there are several games that fall into that category, and one of them made the Locks.

1. AUB +3 @ ARK It appears to me that the wrong team is favored here. I know all about DMac and F. Jones and the running game of the Hogs, but Auburn is playing really well now especially on D. Ark. has beaten lightweights Troy, No. Tex. and UT Chatt., and has lost the two games where it played teams with a pulse. Ark. is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. Not that I am superstitious or anything, but Auburn has not lost in their white road unis (some of the best in CFB, I might add) since 2003. Their last loss on the road was LSU ‘05, but they were wearing the dark home unis in that game. The QB match-up pits Cox v. Dick (I could not leave this out). Cox is playing strong and hard, while Dick is playing like a 60 year old man with ED. Unless Coach Nutt gives Dick a dose of Viagra, he will continue to play limp. Take the Tigers. AUB 30 ARK 24

2. CAL -14 v. ORE ST Cal is fresh after a week off and finds itself ranked No. 2 in the nation. The Bears know they must impress to keep this important spot in the polls. Cal has weapons galore including QB N. Longshore, RBs J. Forsett and J. Best, WRs D. Jackson, L. Hawkins and R. Jordan. The Beaver D is ranked 116 in CFB against the pass. Ore St. WR S. Strougher is out for the year and 2 OL are doubtful for this game. Cal HC J. Tedford will have this team ready to play at home where they have fared very well this year. Look for a blow out.
CAL 45 ORE ST 21

3. BC -13.5 @ ND The Battle of the Vatican takes place in South Bend before Touchdown Jesus. I am sure much fish will be consumed during the pre-game tailgate at this one. BC is led by Heisman hopeful QB M. Ryan (62%, 1857 yds, 15 TDs and 5 INTs) and RB A. Calendar. The Eagles are a very solid team on both sides of the ball. On the other hand ND is pathetic, ranking close to dead last in every offensive category and giving up over 189 rushing per game. ND HC C. Weiss is easy to dislike so it will be no problem pulling for BC in this one. This is a rivalry game, and I expect BC to pour it on. BC has 4 defensive players that are questionable, but ND’s offense is so lousy it will not matter. BC 41 ND 14

BONUS GAME There was not an obscure game that I liked so I thought I would pick a game that fit in the above mentioned “public fade” theory. Take Duke +14 at home against Va Tech. Over 75 % of the money is on Va Tech, and they are the road favorite. Also, Duke is 5-1 ATS while Va Tech is 1-4 ATS. Duke is a pretty good offensive team led by QB T. Lewis and can score some points. AA Va Tech LB V. Hall is out injured and will not return until November. Blue Devils to cover in this one.

Good Luck!