Two straight winning weekends for the Locks as we went 3-1 again last
week to push the overall record to 18-15-1. However, it is no time to
get cocky at this point because as soon as you do, you usually get
hammered. Choosing 4 games this week was extremely difficult for me as
nothing really jumped out at me on first glance. The lines continue to
get sharper and value is hard to come by at this time of year. One
trend that I started noticing a few weeks back was how SEC teams
coming off a bye week were doing very well (4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS). I did
a little further research and found that BCS teams coming off of a bye
week when playing an unrested team were (20-8 ATS), more amazing was
when you just consider the Big 12 and SEC they are 8-0 ATS. Now that
is some value right there. There are 5 teams this weekend in that role
(Ga Tech was coming off a bye but lost on Thurs. which makes the
current mark 20-9 ATS). Okla., Ok. St., Mia (F), Cincy and Syr.  are
all coming off of a bye week, and one of these made the locks. The
consensus play this week is Duke +16 at home against Clemson as 74 %
of the money is on Clemson (I am not touching this one as Duke is
awful and Clem. is Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde).  I wanted to get the LSU/Bama
game on the locks but just could not get comfortable taking either
side as I can see the game going either way. However, I do like the
total and it will be the bonus pick.

1. WAKE (PICK) @ UVA I am back on the Deacs this week as they looked
good on the road at UNC last Saturday. This is a hot team right now
that has ripped off 7 straight wins. On the other hand, UVA was
exposed last weekend losing to NC ST. The Cavs have been getting it
done with smoke and mirrors all year as they have won 5 games by 6
points or less against a very mediocre schedule. UVA’s offensive
numbers are extremely pedestrian (#102 in total O, #88 in passing, #83
in rushing and # 92 in scoring). Wake is a very fundamentally sound,
well coached team that does not make many mistakes. UVA will need STs
or TOs to stay in the game. Wake has 0 TOs in its last 2 games, and KR
K. Marion leads the nation in returning kicks (33.9 avg and a
ridiculous 76.8 avg. in last two games). UVA is beat up as RB Peerman
is hobbled by an ankle injury and 4 other starters are listed as
questionable. Add to the equation that the road team is 7-1-1 ATS in
this match up and you have a Wake victory and cover. WAKE 27 UVA 18

2. OK ST +3 V. TEXAS The Big 12 bye week theory is in play here as the
Cowboys play at home off a weeks worth of rest and preparation. The
Longhorns had to sweat out a come from behind win against Nebraska  as
RB. J. Charles went nuts in the 4th quarter. Ok St is coming off good
wins against K. State and a drubbing of Nebraska where they gained 317
yds rushing and 329 yds  rushing, respectively. Cowboy RB D. Savage
has 5 straight 100 yd. games and is leading the Big 12 at a 124
yd/game clip. Ok. St is also balanced and can throw the ball with QB
Z. Robinson pitching it to super WR. A. Bowman (800 yds receiving).
Texas is #68 in the nation against the pass (giving up 230 yds/game in
the air). The Longhorns just seem to be lacking something this year
that is hard to put a finger on. It may be the numerous suspensions
and off the field stuff or it may just be Mack Brown, but they do not
look like the Texas teams of the past few years. Cowboys win outright
in high scoring affair.  OK ST 35 TEXAS 31

3. MICH -4 @ MICH ST I usually do not like giving points on the road
in a conference rivalry game, but this looked too good to pass up. The
Wolverines are CFB’s version of “Night of the Living Dead” as they
have arisen from the grave after losing their first 2 games. HC L.
Carr should be up for coach of the year as he has rallied the troops
for 7 straight wins and a tie for first in the Big 10 while his first
string QB and RB have been dealing with injuries. On the other hand,
the up and down, unpredictable Spartans have lost 2 straight and 4 of
their last 5. All the talk of the big, fast, athletic D of Mich. St.
went out the window last week as they gave up 230 yds on the ground to
a pathetic Iowa team. How can they stop the Wolverine ground game?
Since the Oregon debacle, Michigan’s front 7 has been a rock against
the run only allowing 137 yds/game on the ground against very good
competition. How is this for an angle: Mich. is 9-2 ATS in its last 11
road games and Mich. St. is 2-8 in its last 10 home games. The
Spartans may come out fired up, but will fade in the 2nd half as
Michigan tunes up for the clash with O$U and cruises. MICH 31 MICH ST
20

BONUS PICK: The posted total on the LSU/Bama game is 47.5. The only
way I can see Bama winning this game is to air it out against an LSU
secondary that has had it problems with Ky, Aub and UF. If the Bama OL
can keep JPW upright, then Bama can score some points as it has
multiple weapons on O.  Also, I think that Bama will have a hard time
stopping LSU. LSU is more balanced with E. Doucet back.  Both teams
have reliable kickers so their should be very few wasted
opportunities. Take the over 47.5 .

Good Luck!