It’s week 11 in CFB as things start to get very interesting down the home stretch. What looked to be at least a third straight 3-1 week in week 10 turned into a 1-1-2 “juice” week for the Locks. Wake’s All American kicker missed 2 FGs as Wake lost 17-16, and Ok. St. spit the bit in the fourth quarter after leading Texas 35-14. We got the push there, but it was close to being a big week. But hey, that’s the life of a capper. The  CFB season total for the Locks now stands at 19-16-3 as we enter week 11. Nice slate of games to choose from this week, but value seems to be harder and harder to come by. A few games I like that did not make the Locks are NC ST -3.5, ARIZ ST -7, CINCY -6  and WASH ST -10.5. The Bama/State game fell into two “system plays,” but I could not pull the trigger. Miss. St. is coming off a bye week (BCS teams coming off bye week are 23-11-2 ATS, in SEC/ Big 12 games bye teams are 9-0 ATS) and Bama is one of the top 5 consensus plays as 73% of the money is on the Tide. Based on these 2 theories, the play would be Miss St. +4.5. However, I just could not get comfortable with it. I guess the Saban-aide is taking its effect through osmosis due to living here in B’ham.

One of the issues that seems to dominate CFB this time of year is coaching change rumors. This year the “hot seat” for coaches has been a topic for the media from the get-go. Aub. coach Tubberville was rumored to be on his way out after the loss to Miss. State, but now is rumored to be A&M’s first choice. It seems that in this day and age of instant media/instant gratification that coaches are judged by the fans and much of the media on a game-by-game basis. This fickle bunch had Lloyd Carr (Mich) dead and buried after the horrendous 0-2 start, but now Carr is being considered for CFB coach of the year as the Wolverines will play for the Big 10 crown. With all the upsets and craziness this year this coaching change fever is at an all time high. But should we be surprised at all by this topsy-turvy state of things. You have to remember that the players are 19-22 old males, usually not the model of consistency, and that getting them to play at a high level week in and week out is a monumental task. But the coaches should not be whining and crying about this scrutiny as their compensation has soared over the past 5 years. These guys make millions a year, in some cases $4 million per year. I guess the “what have you done for me lately” mentality comes with the territory these days. Enough of this, let’s get to business.

1. KY -3.5 @ VANDY The SEC bye week theory is in play here as the Cats come into Nashville rested, while the Commodores limp home after getting drummed by the Gators. This is just a terrible match-up for Vandy. I would suggest that you “buy” the half-point and make it KY -3. (You can pay 10% more juice for each half point you buy, thus KY -3 would be -120 to win 100). Kentucky is averaging 39 points/game while Vandy has not scored over 31 points (once against Ole Miss) against any D 1 opponent this year. The Cats get healthy as RB R. Little, LB M. Johnson and WR K. Burton return to the line-up. Vandy just does not have enough firepower to keep up with the Cats (Vandy’s O is #107 in total offense and #111 in passing). Kentucky’s weakness is in the secondary but the Dores cannot exploit it. Vandy looks to the last 2 games to get bowl eligible as the Cats cruise. KY 31 VANDY 21

2. AUB +2 @ UGA As most of you know, I have been on Auburn since the UF game. I will continue to ride this horse until it cannot run anymore. The wrong team is favored here as Auburn is in a great role as a road underdog and is playing a top 10 team. Auburn has only lost 2 SEC road games in the past 3 years and both of those were at LSU. Auburn’s D has been playing lights out (#8 total D, #10 passing, #23 rushing and #5 scoring) this year, and if the Dawgs cannot establish the run it will be a long day for them. UGA came back to life after it’s off week in beating Florida and has been on a run with RB K. Mareno carrying the load. Remember, Auburn’s D held Ark’s McFadden and Jones in check and should be able to contain Moreno. Lost in the Auburn resurgence is the steady play of QB B. Cox. he is protecting the ball and moving the chains. The UGA defense has bee an issue all year, and last week Troy put up 34 points. If you are into trends try these out. Aub. is 5-1 ATS in last 6 games, 5-0 ATS against teams with winning record and 6-0 ATS in last 6 as a road dog. UGA is 2-9-1 ATS in last 12 as a favorite. Auburn wins straight up. AUB 24 UGA 17

3. AIR FORCE -3.5 @ ND These teams are heading in opposite directions as Air force has won 5 games in a row under new HC Troy Calhoun while the Irish are just down right awful (it could not happen to a nicer guy than Charlie Weiss) losing to Navy last week. This service academy is actually better than the one Notre Dame faced last week. Air Force is a veteran team that plays solid on both sides of the ball. Led by QB S. Carney on offense and LB D. Fowler on defense, these guys will get after you. WR C. Hall has 41 receptions and 1,122 yds rushing out of the veer option. The biggest mismatch is that the Irish offense ranks #118 in the nation (next to last) in total offense while the falcons give up a meager 18 points a game. QB J. Clausen gets the nod for the start but will be running for his life most of the day. This Irish team may go down as the worst in ND history. AF 28 ND 17

BONUS PICK:  CFU -20.5 @UAB. I have been fading UAB for the past 3 weeks, and they have been golden. They are completely beat up, very young and have 0 depth. the blazers are last in the nation in stopping the run, and CFU has the number 2 rusher in RB K. Smith. UAB has only scored 23 points in the past 3 games and things should not get any better this week. CFU 45 UAB 17

Good Luck!