Presenting the Thanksgiving Day Edition of the Locks. Is there any better time for CFB than Thanksgiving Day weekend? Sitting around with family and friends enjoying good food and great football all weekend. Something I look forward to each year. The Locks were solid again last week going 3-1 pushing the yearly mark to 24-18-3 ATS. Over the past 5 weeks the Locks have gone 12-6-2 ATS. Let’s see if we can keep the momentum going. This week presents a lot of rivalry games as well as games of huge importance relative (Nick Saban term) to the BCS title game, conference championships and bowl pecking order. Interestingly, the SEC and ACC match-up in 4 intersectional games this weekend that are for the most part huge rivalry games. Two teams (Auburn and So Car.) in the SEC are coming off bye weeks (SEC teams coming off a bye week playing an unrested team are 8-0 ATS). Teams that I like but did not make the top 4 are: USC -3, ARK +12.5, TN +3, TULANE +12 and MEM. -7.5.

1. AUB -6 v. BAMA There was no way I was going to get out of picking this game. When I moved to B’ham in 1994 I was told I had to pick a side. That was really difficult for a number of reasons, so I decided to pick a team annually based upon my wager. This year I am going with Auburn mainly because of the “bye week” theory mentioned above. When a trend is this good it is hard to ignore. Both teams are coming off difficult losses, but Auburn has had an extra week to get healthy and prepare for the Tide. Since hammering Tennessee, Bama’s offense has been in a downward spiral looking lost at times to totally inept at others. It will help getting Caldwell, Davis and Coffee back, but they face a very salty Auburn front 7 on D and you do not want to come in stumbling. There also appears to be some distractions in the ranks with the Tide as HC Saint Nick has to deal with barbs from the national media and suspensions issues. The key to this game, IMO, is the play of Auburn QB B. Cox. The past 2 years Cox has looked awful against UGA (7 INTS), but has played well against the Tide (20 of 35 for 255 yds, 3 TDs and 0 INTs). Cox should rebound from his poor performance and play like he had the 7 games prior. Auburn is not a great offensive team, but if they can avoid mistakes, move the chains, and pound the ball, they should be ok. Auburn has the #1 punting game in the nation which should help the field position battle.

AUB 27 BAMA 16

2. MIZZOU +2.5 v. KAN This should be one of the best CFB games of the year, as the winner has the inside track to the BCS Championship game. I really like both of these teams and each has made more than one appearance in the Locks this year. Kansas is an amazing 10-0 ATS this year, #7 in total offense, #8 in total defense, #2 in scoring and #2 in points allowed, so why am I fading them now? I just think Mizzou is a better team all around, and in that case you have to take the points (buy it up to Mizzou +3). Kansas has had the luxury of not facing Texas, Okla. and A&M from the Big 12 South so their stats are a little skewed based upon their schedule. I also looked at 3 common opponents for each in the conference. 1) K. State (Mizzou 49-32, Kan 30-24); 2) A&M (Mizzou 40-26, Kan 19-11); and 3) Colo. (Mizzou 55-10, Kan 19-14). I know the transitive theory is inapplicable to CFB, but it gives you a little measuring stick. Both QBs are playing lights out, and both should be getting major consideration for the Hypesman. T. Reesing (Kan) is very underrated and has thrown 13 TDs and 0 INTs in the past 3 games. C. Daniel (Mizzou) has 30 TDs and 9 INTS for the year and Mizzou has scored at least 30 points in every game. It should be a shootout (take the over), but Mizzou pulls it out. MIZZOU 47 KAN 42

3. UGA -3.5 @ GA TECH When I first saw this line, I could not believe it. UGA is on fire and with a win has all but guaranteed a BCS bowl (dependent upon whether they play in SECC game). I also think that UGA could beat LSU in ATL. On the other hand Tech is limping to the finish line and the faithful are all over HC C. Gailey. Tech is 1-3 SU (straight up) against teams with a winning record. The Jacket D is salty and will give the Dawgs all they want, but the Tech offense is anemic and rank #100 in passing. UGA will be able to slow down the Tech running game and make QB. T. Bennett try and beat them. He will not be able to accomplish this task. UGA’s D is playing very well, and RB K. Moreno has 5 straight 100+ yd games. As for trends, the road team is 7-1-1 ATS in this series. Lay the points and take the Dawgs. UGA 24 TECH 13

BONUS PICK: Take FRESNO ST -1 v. K STATE. K State is coming off an emotional loss to Mizzou on senior day and will not be fired up about traveling out to Cali for thanksgiving to play a non-conference foe. On the other hand, Fresno loves playing the BCs teams and it would make their season to beat the Wildcats. This line has been a mover as the Vegas sharps seem to love Fresno (line opened at K. St. -2.5).

GOOD LUCK and Happy Thanksgiving!

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