Lou’s Locks – Bowl Edition
2007 December 21
It’s Bowl season, so I thought I would take a crack at making a few prognostications. I am going to pick 5 games before the New Year’s Eve bowls, then I’ll come back and pick 5 more, and finally I’ll do a write up on the NC game. The Locks were 60% (30-20-4) for the regular season of CFB this year, and hopefully I can keep up the pace or do even better. But handicapping bowls is a completely different animal than capping games on a weekly basis. A different set of factors must be considered in playing these Bowl games. The main things that I look at are: motivation, coaching, injuries/suspensions and strength of schedule/conference pedigree. You must take into account whether a team really wants to be at the bowl. Some teams are jacked to be in a bowl, while other teams may feel that they had to settle for a lesser bowl and are only concerned about playing out the string. Look at coaches and their past bowl records, coaching changes and overall focus of the coaching staff. Some coaches take bowls as seriously as regular season games, while others use it as a mini-spring practice or a reward for seniors. Since there is usually a lay-off between the regular season and bowls, you need to pay attention to players getting healthy and coming back to play. It is also grade time and many teams will have academic casualties. Finally, look at teams SOS and conference affiliations and the general direction of the program. These factors can be huge when capping these bowl games. On to the Bowl Locks.
1. FLA ATL/MEM OVER 66 The early bowl games tend to be shootouts and hit the over on a consistent basis. Over the past 7 years, bowl games before Dec. 26th are 28-15-2 over the total. Both of these teams have very good offenses and pathetic defenses. Both teams give up more points than they score on average : FAU scores 30.1 and gives up 33.8 and Memphis scores 29.4 and gives up 31.2. The past 3 games these numbers are even higher FAU (37.7/38), Mem. (36.3/30). Both teams have very good QBs and exciting WRs. This game is being played indoors on a fast track, and if that was not enough, FAU has played over the total in its past 7 games this year. I think this one sails over the total. FAU 40 MEM 35
2. CINCY -11 v SO MISS. This one appears to be a total mismatch. The only question is whether Cincy wants to be in B’ham at the Papajohns.com bowl. However, Cincy is a well coached team that has not been bowling much recently. HC Kelly wants to finish strong and remain in the top 25. Cincy is 5-0 ATS against opponents who are playing in bowls this year, while So Miss. is 1-4 ATS. Cincy plays well against quality teams and has a much better SOS and plays in a better conference. This is So Miss HC Jeff Bower’s last game and you wonder if the team will be focused on a new staff for next year. Cincy’s D is very stout holding 9 of 12 opponents under 100 yds rushing this year (D is #15 in nation against the run and #11 scoring D). So Miss is a one dimensional team on O avg. 200 yds rushing but only ranking #90 in passing. In its 3 non-conf. games against D-1 opponents the Golden Eagles failed to crack 20 points. I just do not see So Miss doing anything against the Bearcat D. Cincy is also great at creating TOs and has a fantastic TO ratio 1.42 (#3 in nation) while So Miss has a -0.17 TO ratio (#74). Bearcats roll. CINCY 35 SO MISS 14
3. BYU -5.5 v. UCLA These teams played earlier in the season and UCLA won 27-17, but Vegas has installed the Cougars as a 5.5 point favorite? What gives? Well, UCLA is a mess with HC K. Dorrell given his walking papers and DC DeWayne Walker taking over the helm. It does not appear that Walker is a serious candidate for the HC job. The players love Walker and you have to wonder how much they will care about playing in this game. The game is in Vegas so that is advantage to BYU. Who will be out enjoying Sin City …..UCLA or BYU? this is BYU’s 3rd straight trip to this bowl and they will easily have a home field/crowd advantage. UCLA is reportedly starting B. Olsen at QB, their 3rd QB in as many games. BYU is a very good team with impressive offensive rankings (#15 total O, #13 pass, #43 scoring) and defensive rankings (#10 total D, #9 rush and #13 scoring). UCLA’s injury list looks like a report after the battle of Bunker Hill with 10 players listed as out or doubtful. I just do not see much motivation on the part of the Bruins, remember this team lost to ND.
BYU 24 UCLA 13
4. ORE ST. -5 v. MARY The only way you get me interested in this game is to have some action on it. Two pretty mundane teams in this one. But there is a lot of value here, IMO. The beavers enter this game on a very hot streak winning 6 of 7, the only loss being to a very good U$C team. On the other hand the Terps enter just 2-4 in their last 6 games. It appears to me that the ACC is pretty weak this year, so I give the conference edge to the PAC 10 here. Another thing I like is that the Ore. St D is very, very good (#11 total D, #2 rush D). The Terps offense is pretty pedestrian (#89 total O, #79 pass, #66 rush and #78 scoring). This game is being played in SF so Maryland will have to travel cross country for Christmas. Look for Beavers to prevail in low scoring (under) game. ORE ST 23 MARY 10
5. MISS ST +3 v. CFU “Who let the Dogs out!!!!!!!!” The Bullies are making their first bowl appearance in 7 years, and you can expect a motivated team at the Liberty Bowl in Memphis which will be filled with camouflage wearing State fans (they will duck hunt that morning, and then head straight to the game, I promise I have seen it before). I really like a good SEC team catching points against a C-USA team. CFU has RB K.Smith who is a load (leading rusher in nation) but State has a very salty D (#28 overall) and can contain the one dimensional CFU attack (#101 passing O). State will pound and pound on the Golden Knights and it will show in the 4th quarter. State has quality wins over Aub., KY and Bama while CFU can only point to 2 wins over Tulsa as its best victories. I think the wrong team is favored here and the popular pick with the public will be CFU. Bullies win outright.
MISS ST 24 CFU 20
Merry Christmas to all ……… and to all Good Luck!
Vote here
It isn’t that your comments on the games aren’t quality stuff, its just that the games you’re commenting on aren’t as interesting as the picture above it. How if you want to prognosticate on which of the two will “strap it on”…
This is easily the best pic you have ever put up. I think that even fans of the SEC, Big East, and Big 10 can agree. Or Bama and Tennessee fans even.
Jai, in the spirit of Christmas – can’t we all just get along (as it pertains to half naked chicks making out)?
Yes, Bammeroid, Merry Christmas.
I already have a Christmas Day Photo ready. High 5
fuck that.
I am taking credit for this.
as you should, dickweed
YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!
By far the best pic ever posted on this site.
Joker, that is complete utter bullshit. my farks are better than lesbians
I am shocked we have not seen a “Sombrero Crown of Thorns” fark on this site yet…
laced with coonskin?
This site needs more pictures of guys.
@10
I agree but only if there are lipstick lesbians with them.
If you want to really find out who is going to cover in these bowl games, go to http://www.EddieMush.com
Hilarious, but their clients are rolling. This guy can mush any game.