It’s time for this week’s Locks as we enter week 4 of the CFB season. Took one on the chin last week going 0-2-1 with Clemson failing to cover by a half point, UGA pushing (if you bought the half point you covered) and Arizona looking disgraceful. That brings the overall tally to 5-3-1. still on the positive side.

Huge slate of games this week as things start to get very interesting with a ton of important games. Although none of these “big games” made the Locks, I have a few comments about them. So far in the SEC the home dogs are barking and have a record of 3-0 ATS. This week there are 3 SEC home dogs that are worth keeping your eyes on. First, Bama goes to Arky as a 9.5 favorite. It appears to be a very favorable match-up for the Tide as the Hawgs have struggled against some cup cakes, and Bama has looked sharp for The most part. The early start is a concern and a close to DD road favorite is scary. It’s a no play for me. The CBS tilt between UF and the Vols has the Gates as a 7.5 favorite in Knoxville. No one is giving the Vols any chance in this one. Meyer has Fulmer’s number (3-0) but UT plays its best when its back is against the wall. Percy Harvin is the X factor and must be contained if the Vols have a shot. Watch for G. Jones to make a few big plays for the Vols. I expect a close street fight type game, but I am not going to jinx my boys in this one. Finally, we have the SEC game of the night down on the Plains where LSU is a 2.5 point favorite. This one could go either way, IMO. If you consistently bet against TT as a dog playing a top 10 team, then you will go broke. Both teams have great Ds (2 best in SEC) and significant play makers. However, the QB position is a question mark for both teams. The home crowd will factor in this one so I am laying off it as well. Watch the home dogs this week and see if we can identify a trend for upcoming games in the SEC. Now on to the Locks.

1. UNC -3 v. VT This game will represent a shift in power in the ACC. The Hokies have been one of the upper echelon teams since the expansion of the ACC and the Heels have been a bottom feeder. This is where things change. UNC returns 18 starters this year and HC B. Davis is turning thing around quickly in Chapel Hill. Coming off a 44-12 pasting of Rutgers, the Heels look good on both sides of the ball. QB TJ Yates leads the O and is the #14 passer in the nation in QB efficiency (29/48 for 442 yds, 5 TDs and 1 INT). UNC also has a strong RB in G. Little and plenty of weapons …. mainly do everything player B. Tate and WR H. Nicks. The real surprise has been on D where the Heels look fast and athletic led by soph. LBs Q. Sturdivant and B. Carter. On the other hand VT has looked shaky this year and needed 2 big penalties to drive for the winning FG against GT last week. The Hokie O is anemic ranked #107 in the nation in total O. QB T. Taylor is back in the starting role but he only passed for 48 yds last week. I just do not see VT being able to move the ball effectively against UNC. While the D and ST are good at VT, I think they are in for a rude awakening in this game. You will not need but I recommend buying the half point off the critical number 3 down to 2.5. UNC 27 VT 13

2. BC -10.5 v. UCF Both teams are coming off bye week losses. BC lost to GT and UCF lost to USF and both should be rested and ready. I think UCF may be getting a little too much value for playing USF close (34-27 OT). If you look at the numbers, USF out gained UCF 504-226 in that game. UCF was helped by some late TOs by USF, and BC will not be as gracious this week. The mismatch in this one is the BC D versus the UCF O. BC’s defense is very stout only allowing 9.5 pts. per game (#15 scoring D and #22 total D) and is led by monster DTs BJ Raji and R. Brace. They also have very good LBs in B. Toal and M. Herzlich. On the other hand, the Knight O is not good at all and probably considered the worst in C-USA (#108 total O and #86 in scoring O in the nation). BC has enough O with RBs J. Haden and J. Smith to win this one handily. Remember to buy the half point in this one down to 10. BC 28 UCF 7

3. MARSHALL +8 @ SO MISS These look like very similar teams to me so you gotta take this many points. The Golden Eagles come off a narrow win against Ark. St. while Marshall comes off a close victory over Memphis. Marshall returns 17 starters this year and has a good mix of experience and athletic youth. So Miss HC L. Fedora is in his first year and is trying to install a fast break spread offense. He has 2 very good receivers in TE S. Nelson and WR D. Brown and a great RB in D. Fletcher. However, this is not your father’s So Miss D. The DL is inexperienced and thin. This is where Marshall has a decided advantage. Marshall RB D. Marshall (no relation) had 26 carries for 140 yds last week and should find room to rumble in Hattiesburg. Herd WR D. Passmore is also a weapon and can get deep on play action looks once they establish the running game. This looks to be a very close game with either team having the opportunity to win it at the end. MARSHALL 24 SO MISS 23

OTHER GAMES I LIKE BUT DID NOT MAKE THE CUT:

OLE MISS -7
HOUSTON -6.5
RUTGERS/NAVY OVER 60.5
WAKE +4.5
TULSA -10
BALL ST +3
AKRON -10
TOLEDO +7
TN/FLA UNDER 51.5
SJST +8.5

GOOD LUCK and BLOW ME GATORS