We got back on the winning side last week going 2-1 (7-4-1 YTD) with BC covering easily, Marshall covering and winning out right and UNC losing. Looked like a possible 3-0 sweep this past  weekend with UNC  up 14-3 in 3rd quarter. Then their QB goes down to an injury and the game changes completely, that was a tough loss. Very glad I laid off the SEC home dogs as they went 0-3 this past weekend, that trend is now 3-3 and not looking as good. A trend that I will start following in the SEC is teams coming off a bye week playing an unrested team. Last year in the SEC when a team coming off a bye week played an unrested team they were 10-0 ATS. This year so far in the SEC this theory is 2-0 ATS (UT covering against UAB and UF covering against UT). This trend definitely merits watching in coming weeks. Another good card this weekend with plenty of spotlight games.

Last night’s U$C loss to Oregon St. is what makes CFB so great, IMO. Teams can look like night and day from week to week and the huge upset is always in play. Since U$C’s throttling of O$U all of the talking heads were claiming that U$C had one spot locked up in the BCS title game and everyone else was playing for the other spot. Did these guys so quickly forget the ’07 season? It is ludicrous to even try and predict the BCS title match-up in week 10 much less week 4. Let it play out because it appears there are going to be a ton of twists and turns throughout this year. In fact, I will be shocked if any BCS school is able to go undefeated this year. Okla. still has Texas, TTech, Kansas, Ok St and possibly Mizzou in Big 12 title game. The SEC is a complete meat grinder of a conference that has not yielded an undefeated team since 1998 (yes, it was the Vols). The ACC and Big 10 are both down, but watch out for Penn St as a team no one is talking about very much having an outside chance to end up undefeated.  If one of the non-BCS teams (BYU, Utah, TCU , Boise) runs the table they will still be, and should be looking, in from the outside. It will be interesting to see how everything shakes out, and we have a long way to go. Now on to the Locks.

1. CINCY -11 @ AKRON I am dubbing this one my Friday Lunch Credit Card Roulette Special. I go to lunch almost every Friday with great friends from work and we have a tradition of playing credit card roulette to see who picks up the tab. The last credit card in the basket has to pay. Somehow, I have been playing for over 10 years now and have yet to pick up the tab. The odds on that occurrence are staggering.  That is how much confidence I have in this game. Even though this game goes against playing a DD road favorite, there are tons of reasons to be on it. First, I love Bearcat HC Brian Kelly. His offensive system is great as evidenced last week when 2nd string QB T. Pike came in when QB D. Grutza went down and went 20-24 for 241 yds, 3 TDs and 0 INTS as Cincy dismantled Mia (O) 45-20. Akron is 2-2 after its win over Army last week. This big mismatch in this game is the Akron D against the Cincy O. Akron is giving up 243 yds. rushing a game and is not very good on pass D either. Cincy RBs J. Goebel and D. Goodman will run wild and Cincy will score easily. This is an in-state game so the Bearcats will give full attention. CINCY 42 AKRON 20

2. DUKE -7  v. UVA Yes, Duke is favored here. Did you know that Duke is on a 25 game losing streak in ACC conference games !!! Well, this weekend they break the streak. Blue Devil HC D. Cutcliff has Duke playing well and 2-1 for the first time in over 10 years. UVA on the other hand is dismal with blow out losses to U$C and UCONN and a narrow victory over FCS Richmond. Duke is #1 in the ACC in pass efficiency offense while UVA is last in the ACC in pass efficiency defense. Devil Qb T. Lewis should be able to shred UVA’s secondary  with passes to WRs E. Riley and J. Williams. Duke also has a steady Rb in C. Harris. Not only is UVA bad in pass D, but they are woeful on O. UVA is last in the ACC pass efficiency O and in rushing O (52 yds/game), as well as being last in ACC in scoring O and scoring D. This is a bad Cav squad and look for Duke to take out 25 games of frustration on UVA. DUKE 27 UVA 13

3. OLE MISS +22.5 @ FLA This one is a topsy-turvy play as I believe Florida is a little over valued coming off their big win in Knoxville and Ole Miss is under valued coming off home loss to Vandy. As terrible as Ole Miss played the past few years under Oregeron, they always showed up and played well in big games, especially against Florida. Plus, the early start time is a good thing when playing in the Swamp. Believe it or not the Gators are only averaging 331 yds/game and are not nearly as prolific as last year. Ole Miss has a very good front 4 on D (9th in the nation in sacks and TFLs) now that DT P. Jerry and DE G. Hardy are back. The Rebs also have the ability on O to score some points (3rd in SEC in pass efficiency O and 5th in SEC in rushing O at 180 yds/game) with WR/RB D. McCluster and WR M. Wallace. The Gators have speed everywhere and RB E. Moody emerged last week as another weapon in the Tebag arsenal. The only thing that causes some concern is that Florida is 2nd in nation in TOs (+9) and Ole miss is #109 (-6). I still like all those points and believe Ole Miss has this game close mid-way through the 3rd quarter, but Florida wins . FLORIDA 34 OLE MISS 24

OTHER GAMES I LIKE :

MARSHALL +15

MIA (F) -7.5

MIA/UNC UNDER 44.5

LSU -24

PURDUE +1

UGA/BAMA OVER 45

BALL ST -19

USF -10

PENN ST -16

GOOD LUCK