Is that Lou in the back?Well, it

Well, it’s already week 6 of the CFB season and we keep chugging along. Another 2-1 week last week as we had Duke and Ole Miss as winners and Cincy as the only loser (they lost QB #3 last week). That puts the season tally at 9-5-1. This week’s slate does not have the marquee game appeal of the last 2 weeks, but there appears to be some good value on the board.

I want to start off by apologizing for last week’s oversight of the 2004 Auburn team that clearly went undefeated in the SEC when I said only one team in the past 10 years in the SEC had run the table in the conference. I was reminded early and often by my Auburn brethren of this gaffe. But I think my point is still valid. The SEC is a very tough conference ….. only 2 teams over the past 10 years have been able to navigate the SEC unblemished. Speaking of the SEC, there are a couple of trends we should keep our eyes on as the season plays out. The first one is when an SEC team comes off a bye week and plays an unrested team. Last year in the SEC, teams coming off a bye week were an incredible 10-0 ATS in this scenario (Big 12 teams in this spot were 7-3 ATS last year as well). This year so far that trend has held as both UT and UF covered the spread coming off their bye week. This week we have Vandy +4 against Aub. coming off a bye week. So one would think Vandy is the automatic play this week. However, when I dug a little further I discovered that Vandy is dead last in the SEC in both total offense and total defense and leads the nation in turnover margin (a little smoke and mirrors). You throw in ESPN Gameday making its first appearance in Music City and you wonder if there are just too many distractions for the ‘Dores, so I am laying off that one. Another nice trend over the past 3 years in the SEC is playing double-digit dogs. SEC dogs getting 14+ points are an impressive 23-7 ATS over the past 3 years. SEC road dogs getting 14+ points are 16-5 ATS in that same time span. This just confirms how balanced the SEC really is. This week you have 2 dogs of 14+ points in the SEC (KY +16.5 @Bama and Ark. +24.5 v. UF). However, Ky is going to be without two starters on D and Bama is playing lights out. Ark is just plain terrible, so these are no plays for me as well. Ok, onto the Locks for this week.

1. TTECH -7 @ KSTATE The Red Raiders are coming off a bye week and should be ready to lay it on the Wildcats who struggled last week to beat UL.La. (45-37). K State gave up a whopping 509 yds to the Rajun Cajuns and may yield double that to an explosive Texas Tech team this week. The Red Raiders lead the nation in passing offense and are 9th in scoring offense led by QB G. Harrell and WR M. Crabtree. This year T Tech is also running the ball well (avg. 150+ yds/game) with RBs S. Woods and B. Batch. Finally, Texas Tech has a decent D (returned 8 starters from last year) and should be able to slow down a good Wildcat O (8th in nation in scoring). This should be a high scoring affair with tons of O, but I like the Red Raider D to get more stops. TTECH 48 KST 31 (Remember to buy the half point).

2. F$U +2 @MIA(F) Back in the 80s and 90s this used to be a must see game with great names like Sapp, Ward, Highsmith,Dunn et al. My how times have changes as only 40% of the nation is getting this game on ABC. F$U looked to be better last week as they dismantled Colorado (39-21) and the Canes seemed to take a step back as they lost a heart breaker to UNC. The Seminoles finally get all their players back from suspension and the D looks to be loaded, led by stalwarts at DE N. Moffett and E. Brown, LBs D. Watson and D. Nichols and DBs M. Rolle and P. Robinson. The Canes weakness is in the secondary and F$U will look to get WRs G. Carr, P. Parker and B. Reed heavily involved in the O this week. I am not sold on Cane QB R. Marve and think he will struggle against a very fast and aggressive Seminole D. Noles win outright. F$U 27 MIA(F) 20

3. O$U -1.5 @WISKY How is Wisconsin going to recover from the huge choke job last week in Ann Arbor? The Badgers led 19-0 at the half and proceeded to throw away the game to the Wolverines. On the other hand, the Buckeyes were in complete control of Minny throughout and Minny scored 15 points in garbage time to make the score look more respectable. Playing in Camp Randall is no bargain, but I believe that O$U is being under valued due to the bad loss to U$C earlier in the year. The Buckeyes still have incredible talent everywhere and now RB B. Wells is back to 100% and QB T. Pryor has a few more games under his belt. The key in this game is the O$U Defense. I just do not see Wisconsin being able to run the ball with any success. Thus, they will have to rely on a shaky QB A. Everidge who is a pick waiting to happen. This will be an old fashioned Big 10 slugfest with plenty of running and salty D. The Buckeyes will show they are a very talented team. O$U 24 WISKY 13

OTHER GAMES I LIKE BUT DID NOT MAKE THE CUT:

MARSHALL +3.5 (FRI)

OLE MISS -2.5

IOWA ST +11.5

TULANE -20

ILL. +2

MIZZOU -10.5

ARIZ ST +9

NEV -24.5

TOLEDO +7.5

BAYLOR +25

OK ST -25

TULAS -16

FRESNO -21

GOOD LUCK