I kissed a girl and I liked it The taste of her cherry chap stick...

Back for more CFB capping as we enter week 7 of the CFB season. It was a good week last week as the Locks went 3-0 (12-5-1 for the year) with T Tech, F$U and O$U all getting the job done. The final scoring drive by O$U to get the win and the cover was a coming of age for QB Terrell Pryor as he made several pressure packed completions and finally scored from 15 on a QB option. He is definitely the real deal.

Last week I mentioned the “SEC Bye Week Theory” and it continued it’s unbeaten ATS streak (13-0 ATS in ’07 and ’08) last week as Vandy won outright (+4) against Auburn. This week we have 3 teams in the SEC that fall in this scenario (teams coming off a bye and playing an unrested team). LSU +6 at Fla., UGA -12.5 v. UT and Miss St. +3 v. Vandy. So you would think those are the 3 locks this week, but I am not going to abandon my boys like that, and I have been wrong on Vandy all year, so I am laying off those two (but I would recommend them as small plays on this theory alone). Before I get to my picks, I noticed something interesting when researching this week. The SEC and the Big 12 are dominating the polls and all the talk so far this year. One is because of strong defenses (SEC) and the other is due to high octane offenses (Big 12). The SEC has 8 of the top 26 teams in the nation in scoring defense and 8 teams in the top 22 in total defense. The Big 12 has 7 of the top 25 scoring offenses in the nation and 6 in the top 14 in total offense. We’ll see how it all plays out, but I would rather have the stout D when gunning for a BCS NC. Now onto the Locks.

1. LSU +6 @ FLA This line opened at 4.5 and I liked LSU. Now the public has pounded the Gators, and you are really getting some value in LSU. The SEC bye week theory is in full play. This is a titanic match-up highlighted by last year’s thriller in Baton Rouge. The match-ups that stand out to me are the OL and DL where LSU has a distinct advantage. Also, LSU leads the Gators in almost every SEC statistical category. I know it will be difficult for a young QB (J. LEE) in a hostile environment, but he has a great OL and stable of RBs to lean on. The Gators just have not looked great so far this year and have some issues on the OL (were only leading Ark. by 10 gong into 4th qtr.). People might say that this is a coaching mis-match in favor of UF, but I disagree. Miles is 22-6 in SEC play, Herban is 20-8. Miles is 8-3 (won last 6 in a row) against top 10 teams, Herban is 6-2. Miles leads the head to head matchup 2/1. The “Hat” has had an extra week to prepare and UF comes in a little banged up. And if you like trends look at these: The underdog is 5-1 ATS in last 6 games and the road team is 6-1 ATS n last 7 meetings. I like LSU straight up, but will take the extra 6. LSU 24 FLA 23

2. TCU -15 @ COLO ST I am not keen on laying DD numbers on the road in a conference match-up, but I think this one will be a blow out. The Horned Frogs have a dominating defense and rank #1 in rushing D, #1 in total D and #11 in scoring D in the nation. This is even more impressive when you consider that TCU’s game against Okla. is part of these stats. Colo. St. is led by new HC S. Fairchild and CSU is off to a surprising 3-2 start. But they have not played anyone close to what they will see on Saturday. The Rams are #80 in the nation in scoring O and will find it tough to move the ball on TCU. On the other hand, TCU has the #9 rushing O in the nation averaging 250 yds/game on the ground and should pound the Rams. In the past 3 meetings between the teams TCU won all 3 by an average of 23 pts., holding Colo. St. to 55 yds. rushing last year. I see a similar result this year.

TCU 34 COLO ST 10

3. ND +9 @ UNC You know I have to like it if I am taking the Fighting Irish. One of my least liked teams in CFB coached by one my least favorite coaches. However, business is business. Both teams enter this game looking for national respect. The Heels come into this tilt off a big win over UCONN and ND comes in after taking care of Stanford. If you look deeper into UNC’s victory you will see they were outgained substantially by UCONN but blocked 3 punts and had a fumble return for a TD. On the other hand, ND was handling Stanford rather easily and 2 late scores made the game appear closer than it was. In looking at the numbers, these teams are pretty evenly matched. ND QB J. Clausen has played well the past couple of weeks and he will need to as UNC has 12 INTS on the year. However, UNC is last in the ACC in sacks and if Clausen gets time he will pick UNC apart. The Irish D has been better than expected with a bend but don’t break mentality led by DE P. Kuntz and Safeties D.Bruton and K. McCarthy. UNC’s O is being led by 3rd string QB C. Sexton and has been pretty pedestrian (#88 in total O). This line started at 7.5 and has climbed to 9 which means the public likes UNC which is strange. The Irish will keep this one well within the number and may win outright. UNC 23 ND 21

OTHER GAMES I LIKE:

UGA -12.5

MISS ST +3

ECAR -6.5

NW +1.5

BAYLOR -4.5

SO CAR -2

NEVADA -20

ARIZ -6.5

TTECH -20

GOOD LUCK