We have reached the halfway point of the CFB season and now is where things start to get very interesting. A bad week last week as we went 1-2 (only second losing week of the season) but we are still 13-7-1 (65%) ATS for the year. A nice card this week and it was difficult to narrow down my choices to just 3 games, lines are getting sharper as the season goes on, but there is till value out there.

Before I get to the Locks, I thought I would give my annual rant about the BCS system and how CFB determines it NC. The first BCS rankings come out next week so this is a good time to mention it. As most know, the BCS rankings are made up of 1/3 Coaches/USA Today Poll, 1/3 Harris Interactive Poll and 1/3 Computer combination Poll. First, the AP Poll is totally irrelevant to CFB because it has 0 bearing on who plays in the BCS NC game. However, ESPN and many in the media would lead you to believe it is the only Poll because that is all they talk about. IMO, this system is nothing but a popularity contest which is biased from its inception. The coaches poll is inherently biased as coaches will vote conference members high to get in on the BCS $$$$. Plus, the coaches do not watch all teams play games. The Harris Poll is just a bad replacement for the AP Poll that pulled out of the BCS in ’03 (split NC with LSU and U$C). And the computer polls may be the most accurate but I have never understood what data went into these computers at the beginning of the year. When they took out SOS and quality wins from the formula, it became a beauty contest. Now you will see coaches at the end of the year campaigning for their team to make the BCS game. A playoff is the only real solution, but it ain’t happening. So a “plus 1″ scenario is the best we can hope for in the near future. So get ready for the ’08 campaign speeches to start in the next few weeks which is comical to me and not the way to crown a Champion. Now onto the Locks.

1. O$U -3.5 @ MICH ST Sparty is on fire as they have won their past 6 games in a row, but this is the time of year that Mich St usually shows why they are not an elite team. As I have said on several occasions before, the Buckeyes are littered with NFL talent and are being punished for the debacle earlier in the year against U$C. The mismatch in this game is the Buckeye run game vs. the Spartan run D. Cal rushed for 206 yds, NW rushed for 176 yds and Iowa rushed for over 150 yds against Mich St. Last year, RB B. Wells had a field day going off for 221 yds rushing. I expect a similar outing for Wells who says he wants to get back in the Heisman race. Also, O$U’s defense has been very good lately and will bottle up RB J. Ringer, putting all the pressure on QB B. Hoyer. Can he handle it? I do not think so. O$U QB T. Pryor has been inconsistent but I expect him to be serviceable enough to get the W and cover the number. O$U 21 MICH ST 13

2. UVA +5 v. UNC Yes, that is right I am picking the Cavs here. A team I left for dead 3 weeks ago has now reeled off 2 impressive wins against E.CAR and Maryland. UNC is coming off an emotional win against ND and let down may be in order. In their past 3 wins UNC has been outgained by each of its opponents. The Heels have relied on ST and TOs to win. Last week they lost “do everything” athlete B. Tate and he will be missed on ST. UVA’s turn around has been led by a salty D with LB C. Stintum and DE M. Conrath making huge plays. UVA is #2 in ACC in sacks and 3rd string QB C. Sexton will see a ton of pressure and the UNC O (#91 in the nation) will have a difficult time scoring. UVA also has history on its side as UNC has not won at UVA in over 20 years. I like the home team and the points. UVA wins straight up.  UVA 24 UNC 21

3. AIR FORCE -4 @ UNLV The gritty Falcons are 4-1 and are led by a very underrated HC in T. Calhoun. You can always expect 110% effort from the service academies and this is true this year of AF, especially in road games. UNLV on the other hand has regressed. After 2 upset wins against Ariz. St and Iowa St, the Rebs have lost to Nevada and Colo. St. with the D allowing 40 pts per game in the last 2. The mismatch in this one is the AF rushing O (#5 in the nation) against a Rebel run D that is porous. The Falcons are getting great play from freshmen QB T. Jefferson and RB A. Clark and should be able to rumble for close to 300 yds on the ground. While UNLV can score some points, they will get worn down by the second half. AF 38 UNLV 25

OTHER GAMES I LIKE:

STRONG LEANS: MEMPHIS +8, IOWA -3.5, KAN +20, OLE MISS +13, ARK +7.5, TULSA -17.5

NOT SO STRONG LEANS: VT +3, MIA (O) +9.5, UGA -14.5, TTECH -21, MIZZOU +4, ORE ST -16, LSU -2.5

GOOD LUCK