A "recruitnik's" front porch. Come to daddy blue-chipper!!
While I got bloodied, battered and bruised last week in Knoxville, the Locks still had a winning week going 2-1 (17-9-1 ATS for the year) with Oregon and UGA covering without a problem. It could have easily been a 3-0 week but Ark. scored with about a minute left to get the back door cover against Ole Miss. This week’s slate does not have the marquee match-ups of the previous 3 weeks and it was difficult picking my top 3 plays.
Before I get to the Locks, I wanted to comment on the current state of the BCS. Everyone is pontificating on who should be in the BCS NC game. Like I have said repeatedly earlier, it is still too early to worry about, IMO. If things remain as they are, I see little shake up in the top 2. There is no way that Penn St. will jump Bama for the #2 spot if the top 3 run the table. However, the politicking has already started as “heart throb” Kirk Herbstreit has begun beating the drum for JoPa and the Big 10. Wasn’t this the same guy who said last year after O$U got throttled by LSU that the SEC was King? I am not saying that the system is fair, because it is not, but to suggest that Penn St could somehow jump an undefeated SEC team is nothing short of asinine. The fact that Bama is not flashy and gets it done with a great running game and a smothering D instead of a high octane offense should not take away from their accomplishments. But before the Bama boys take up pitch forks and fire and head to Bristol to storm the ESPN offices, everyone needs to relax. We have 4-5 games left and as we all know in CFB, anything can happen. It should be very entertaining to see how it all plays out.
1. TEXAS -3.5 @ T TECH Starting the Locks off with a bang as this is the headline game for the weekend. The line opened at Texas -6 and has been bet down to -3.5. Remember to buy the half point to make it -3. Everyone, and I mean everyone, loves the Red Raiders here. This only solidifies my pick in this one. The Longhorns are battle tested and have shown they can get it done with a huge comeback win over OU, a blow out of Mizzou and a tough win over OK St when they did not play their best. Now the pressure falls squarely on T Tech. Can they handle the pressure? I am not so sure they can. Both teams are on a roll as T Tech has won 10 games in a row and Texas has won 9 in a row. The Red Raiders led by QB G. Harrell and WR M. Crabtree have scored 106 points in the last 2 games. The Longhorns are a different team than in the past mainly due to the addition of DC W. Muschamp. He seems to have instilled a blue collar mentality to the team. T Tech has not seen a pass rush like the Horns have and DE B. Orakpo is a terror off the edge. On offense QB C. McCoy has been ridiculous completing over 80% of his passes to WRs Q. Crosby and J. Shipley. The decided edge in ST goes to the Horns as well as PK R. Bailey has been perfect on his FG attempts. On the other hand, in perfect HC M. Leach fashion, T Tech has a place kicker from the stands who won a contest handling the FGs for them. Expect a high scoring affair in Lubbock with the Horns prevailing. TEXAS 45 T TECH 35
2. MINNY -7 v. N’WESTERN At the beginning of the year who would have thought that these 2 teams would be in the race for the Rose Bowl? Gopher HC T. Brewster has done an amazing job going from 1-11 last year to 7-1 so far this year (only loss to O$U). The Wildcats had a miserable loss last week to Indiana and lost starting QB CJ Bacher and RB T. Sutton so there is little room for error here for NW. The Wildcats tend to turn the ball over too much (5 TOs last week) and that is not a good thing because Minny leads the nation in TO margin. While the Gophers are not going to overwhelm anyone, they are efficient and will not beat themselves. QB A. Weber can run and pass and leads this balanced offense. Last year NW came back from a 35-14 deficit in the 3rd quarter to win against Minny 49-48 in double OT. You think that game isn’t on the mind of the Gophers? Minny gets revenge against a beat up NW team. Buy the half point down to -6.5.
MINNY 28 NW 17
3. F$U +2 @ GT No one is talking about the Noles who after a bad loss to WF has run off 4 in a row and lead their division of the ACC. On the other hand, the Jackets lost last week to resurgent UVA in ATL. While HC P. Johnson has done a very good job at GT with his run oriented O, the Jackets run into the #1 run D in the ACC in the Noles as they only give up 79 yds. a game on the ground led by D. Nicholson, T. Verdell and M. Rolle. The F$U D will create some turn overs and mistake prone GT QB J. Nesbitt will have his hands full in this one. F$U has done a good job on O as well with a very young, but athletic OL, and the surprise at QB C. Ponder who can run and pass. F$U just has too many athletes and too much speed for GT. The Jacket DL is very good and should keep them in the game for 3 quarters, but F$U will prevail in the end and win straight up. F$U 24 GT 18
OTHER GAMES I LIKE BUT DID NOT MAKE THE CUT:
STRONG LEANS: MIZZOU -21, TULSA -7, A&M -3.5, ND -4.5, SO CAR -5.5, ORE +3, NAVY -7 AND ORE ST -15
LEANS: AIR FORCE -8, MIA(F) +2, ILL -2.5, MICH ST -5.5, MISS ST -2.5, NEW MEX +7.5
GOOD LUCK
