Ouch! That one is going to leave a mark. A tough week last week as the Locks went 0-3 for the first time this year. At least we are still in the black for the year with a 17-12-1 overall record. I knew it was going to be a rough weekend when F$U fumbled into the end zone with less than a minute to go and could have won the game. Minny and Texas also lost and failed to cover. We will keep our head up and plug away and hope to sweep the board this weekend. Some great games on the card this weekend, several of which will have BCS implications.
Before I get to my picks, I wanted to discuss a fairly interesting argument. Who is more accurate in ranking CFB teams …… the BCS or Vegas? We all know the BCS system is made up of one third Coaches Poll, one third Harris Poll and one third a combo of the Computer Polls. Right now it looks like this: (1) Bama, (2)T Tech, (3) Penn St, (4) Texas, (5) Fla,
(6) Okla, (7) U$C, (8) Utah, (9) Ok St and (10) Boise. Vegas, on the other hand, would have a completely different ranking. If you took the teams and had them matched up on a neutral field, who would be favored? I realize that Vegas desires to have 50% of the $ on each team so they can make the 10% vig, so the “public” teams would get a small bump because more money would be placed on these team irrespective of strength (e.g. U$C, Fla, ND, etc.). However, the spreads set by Vegas in games are indicative of who they believe are the strongest teams. Is there any doubt that U$C and Fla would be favored over any other team on a neutral field? Granted Vegas is not always correct because you have “dogs” that win straight up over favorites on many occasions. However, I would suggest that Vegas would be more accurate than the current BCS Polls in determining which teams are actually the strongest teams. I am not saying that this is a more fair way of deciding who plays for the NC, but it is interesting to look at who Vegas would have as its top 10. I think it would look something like this: (1) U$C, (2) Fla, (3) Texas, (4) Okla, (5) Bama, (6)Ok St, (7) T Tech, (8)Penn St, (9) UGA and (10) Mizzou. Just look at this week’s T Tech/Ok St match-up. T Tech is only a 3 point favorite at home, on a neutral field this game is a pick or Ok St is a 1 point favorite. Just something to think about. Now on to the picks:
1. BAMA -3.5 @ LSU Huge game in Baton Rouge as HC N. Saban returns to face the team he transformed into a national power. In looking at the stats, I was surprised to find that these teams are fairly even. Bama has the edge on D (Bama rush D is #2 and LSU is #17, Bama pass D is #34 and LSU is #39, Bama scoring D #6 and LSU is #58 and Bama total D is #4 and LSU is #21 in the nation) and LSU has a slight edge on O (LSU total O is #33 and Bama is #61). The 2 factors that made me really like this game are QB and HC, where I think Bama has the decided edge. Sarah Jessica Parker Wilson has had a very good year as the care taker of this O that leans heavily on the OL and running game. Jarrett Lee is a pick 6 waiting to happen, having thrown 5 of his 10 total INTs for TDs this year. LSU’s other QB A. Hatch is out for the game, and we may see frosh QB J. Jefferson at some point. That is not good for the Tigaz. LSU will need a phenomenal game from RB C. Scott to pull off the upset. While Scott ahs been very good this year, he was held to 35 yds against Fla and 61 yds against So Car. With Bama getting NT T. Cody back for this game, I do not see him running wild. On the coaching front you have Satan v. the Hat. While Miles has had a great record thus far, if I had a choice between the 2 for a game I really needed, it would take me all of .5 seconds to make that choice. Bama has played its best ball on the road, and I do not see that changing this weekend. Remember to buy the half point down to 3. BAMA 28 LSU 17
2. PENN ST -7.5 @IOWA Another big game with BCS implications as JoPa tries to convince the world his team is worthy of playing for the NC. For all the crap the Big 10 takes, this Nittany Lion team is very good. Coming off a bye week after beating O$U is just what the doctor ordered. It has allowed QB D. Clark (11TDs and 1 INT) to get completely healthy and also has allowed the entire team to hear that they are not as good as the other undefeated teams. Iowa is coming off a heart breaking loss to Ill. as the Illini kicked a game winning FG with under a minute to play. Iowa will have to rely on RB S. Greene, who has had a monster year, to generate any O in this game as QB R. Stanzi has struggled lately. A one dimensional team is not going to beat Penn St who has a very salty D led by LB N. Bowman. Also, Iowa has trouble protecting the QB so watch for the Penn St DL to be in the back field all day. While Iowa has a tough DL, Penn St’s balance with QB Clark and RB E. Royster will be too much for the Hawkeyes to handle. This one may be close for a half, but I see Penn St pulling away in the second half. Remember to buy the half point here as well as this is on a key number. PENN ST 27 IOWA 13
3. RICE -10 v. ARMY This is a degenerate special, as the only people watching this game will be the ones that have some cabbage on it. Believe it or not but the Rice Owls are bowl eligible for the 2nd time in 3 years. The Owls have a high octane O (#9 scoring O and #13 total O) led by QB C. Clement and WR J. Dillard. The past 5 games the Owls have averaged close to 50 points a game. On the other hand, Army is #110 in total O this year and struggles to score points. You have to give the Cadets some credit though as they have played both Tex. A&M and Air Force close recently. the close loss last week to rival AF has to take some of the bite out of the Cadets and now they travel to the Southwest to face a team unlike any they have seen this year. Army will try to ball control Rice as the Owl D has some serious issues. I just do not think Army can keep up the pace in this one and the Owls cruise to a victory. RICE 40 ARMY 20
OTHER GAMES I LIKE BUT DID NOT MAKE THE CUT:
O$U -10.5, OK ST +3, VANDY +24, ARK +13, UGA -12, OKLA -27, KAN +1, ND +3.5,
COLO ST +10, ORE ST -8, MINNY -8 AND CAL +22.
GOOD LUCK
