Back for week 12 of the college football season and things are getting very interesting. A losing week last week (1-2) as we won with the Tide (-3.5) and lost with Penn St (-7.5) and Rice (-10). Rice had a 31-7 lead at the half, but let Army come back for the back door cover (winning 38-31). That one was painful as we had it capped perfectly. At least we are still above .500 for the year (18-12-1) and looking to get back on track this weekend. The lines seem to be getting sharper and sharper as the season progresses, but I really like this week’s card.

Well it is starting to look like the winner of the Big 12 Championship game will face the winner of the SECC game in the BCS NC. There are obviously significant games to be played the last 3 weeks of the regular season, but it is shaping up for a showcase of the Conference of the Os v. the Conference of the Ds. It will be interesting to see what happens with the Big 12 South if Okla. can beat T TEch and a 3-way tie occurs. The representative will be the BCS highest ranked team which could favor Okla. The SECC game is set with Bama against FLA, and both hope to reach the game on winning streaks and fully healthy. Both Bama and FLA will be heavy favorites for the next 3 weeks and there may be some value fading them since they will have no reason to run it up for style points, they only must win to remain on course to play each other for one of the spots in the BCS NC game. Both are heavily favored this week (Bama -22, now and FLA -22.5). As you know if you read the Locks, double digit dogs of 14+ in the SEC are great bets. The percentages increase when the dogs are on the road (as both are here). I like them both, however, only one of them made the Locks, as I cannot see how State is going to score on Bama. I also like a couple of road favorites this week which is against the grain for me in capping November games. But I have decided to stop over thinking it and go with my gut, so here they are……..

1. SO CAR +22.5 @ FLA Going with the SEC road dog catching 14+ points in this one. The line has been moving, and you can be assured that the public will love the Gators so you may get this one at +24 by game time. The Gators are on fire offensively, no doubt about it, and Herban Meyer would run it up on his grandmother, but you have to like getting more than 3 TDs with the #3 defense in the nation (yielding only 257 yds/game and 15.6 pts./game). Everyone talks about Spurrier, but you have to give the credit to DC E. Johnson this year as he has the Cock D dialed up. LB E. Norwood has to be in consideration for SEC Defensive Player of the Year (Bama DB R. Johnson as well) dominating form the hybrid (LB/DE) position with 54 tackles, 7 sacks and 10.5 TFLs. The Cocks also have a very fast and athletic secondary that matches up well with the FLA speed. FLA is very good and does not make many mistakes, but I think the Cocks have enough athletes to be able to keep it close for 3 quarters. Gators will win but not cover the huge number. FLA 34 SO CAR 20

2. O$U -9.5 @ILL I usually do not like laying road chalk to a conference foe, but it seems these two teams are going in completely opposite directions. Plus, the Buckeyes have been good for the Locks, so I am getting back up on this horse. The Illini have not been able to generate any rushing offense the past few weeks (88 vs. Minny, 90 vs. Wisky and 115 vs. W. Mich) which puts added pressure on QB J. Williams (8 INTs in last 4 games). O$U meanwhile has been a rock against the run all year long allowing only 105 yds/game. So it will be tough for ILL to score many points. The other big mismatch is O$U’s running game against ILL rushing D. ILL is giving up 142 yds/game on the ground and was gutted by Wisky (a power running team). The Buckeyes have been pounding out 176 yds./game on the ground and RB B. Wells has been back on form recently. QB T. Pryor should give ILL LBs fits as well. Rumors of in-fighting on the ILL squad, a revenge game for O$U and the HC match-up of Zook v. Sweater Vest all add up to a big Buckeye win. O$U 34 ILL 14

3. TEXAS -13 @ KAN Another road favorite here, but this is a similar scenario with teams playing at different levels. I was shocked when I saw this line thinking it was going to be 19-20 points. I think the fact that Kansas was a covering machine last year is still having some residual effect. But this is a different Kansas team from last year, this is a team that gave up an avg. of 51 ppg. against USF, T Tech, OKLA and NEB. They also gave up 33 to Iowa St. The Longhorns avg 41 pts/game against Big 12 teams, and I cannot see why they will not reach that number this week. Texas QB C. McCoy will have a field day with a Jayhawk secondary that has been torched the past 4 weeks (Neb. = 328 yds pass, OU = 468 yds pass, T Tech = 418 yds. pass and K ST = 264 pass). Also Kansas QB T. Reesing has not played well in big games this year (OU = 5 sacks and 2 INTs, T Tech = 2 sacks and 3 INTs, NEB = 5 sacks and 1 INT). By the way, Texas leads the Big 12 in sacks with DE B. Orakpo, and they will harass Reesing all day. Texas needs some style points for the polls and should pour it on. TEX 45 KAN 21

OTHER GAMES I LIKE:

WISKY -14, NCST +3.5, ND -3.5, MISS ST +22, KY -4, A&M +8, CAL +3, NEV -15, HOU +4,

OK ST -18.5, MTSU -3

GOOD LUCK