Lou’s Locks

Got back on the winning track last week as the Locks went 2-1 with Texas and O$U covering and So Car getting white washed by the Gators. Please remind me never to fade the gators again this year. Our overall record is 20-15-1 ATS. Looking for a strong finish as we only have 3 more weeks of the regular season left in CFB. Not many marquee games on the card this week, but really like my 3 picks this weekend.

As we head down the back stretch, it appears that there are 6 teams with legitimate shots at playing in the BCS NC game (Bama, Florida, Okla, T Tech, Texas and U$C). Things would have to really get crazy for another team to slip into the mix (Utah, Boise, O$U, Penn St). It still looks like the most probable scenario will pit the SEC winner v. the Big 12 winner for all the marbles. Our President-Elect has made an interesting stand that he wants to see an 8 team playoff in CFB. I am somewhat skeptical of this authority on this issue, but would love to see some sort of playoff format. With the new TV contract with ESPN running through 2014, the best we can hope for in the near future is a Plus 1 format, which would be better than what we have now. If they ever do go to a true playoff it would be interesting to see how the 8 teams would be chosen. Would it be the 6 BCS conference champs and 2 at large teams? Would each conference be required to have a championship game? Would it be the top 8 ranked teams under the current BCS formula? How do you include non-BCS teams? How do you seed the teams? Where would the games be played (home field in first round for top 4 seeds or use the current bowls as sites)? Tons of questions and interesting to debate, but I really doubt the university Presidents are going to buck a system that is in place where they have control and are getting tons of money. I’ll believe it when I see it. Now onto the Locks.

1. BOISE ST -7 @ NEVADA Boise is playing for a chance to get into a BCS bowl and will want to impress. They are undefeated this year, but will face a Wolf pack team that took them to 4 OTs last year. Nevada is an interesting team that runs a unique offense …”the pistol” led by QB C. Kaepernick. They lead the nation in rushing offense and have been hot of late. Boise is #12 in the nation against the run and should be able to keep the Wolf pack from running wild. The real mismatch in this game is the Boise passing game v. the Nevada pass D. Nevada ranks dead last in the nation against the pass allowing 318 yds. passing/game. The Broncos are the WACs most efficient passing team and average 287 yds/game through the air. The Broncos offense is led by QB K. Moore and RBs I. Johnson (who has been there 15 years it seems) and J. Avery. The Broncos will be able to move the ball easily and should score at will and I think they will get enough stops against Nevada to cover this short number (remember to buy it down from 7 to 6.5 as 7 is a critical number). I also think that the WAC will not let their “cash cow” go down in this one and Boise will get any close calls …..just sayin’. BOISE ST 38 NEVADA 24

2. OLE MISS +3.5 @ LSU Getting back on the Rebel horse that has been kind to the Locks this year (had them as winners ATS earlier against Wake and Florida). HC H. Nutt has transformed a team that did not win an SEC game last year into one that will go bowling this year. The Rebels are solid on both OL and DL and their one weakness (the secondary) is something that LSU will have difficulty exposing. LSU’s strength on O is the running of RBs C. Scott and K. Williams, and Ole Miss is very capable of limiting the Tiger running game with a salty front 7 on D (led by DE G. Hardy and DT P. Jerry). LSU’s QBs have thrown 15 INTs this year (7 of which have gone back for TDs) and it is hard to back a team with such pathetic QB play. On the other side of the ball LSU’s D has been a disappointment and Ole Miss QB J. Snead has come into his own. I think Ole MIss can score some points (as Troy did last week) on LSU. Speaking of last week, LSU had to score 30 points to come back and win over Troy. Either they got their mojo back or they shot their wad. I’ll go with the latter and think that Ole Miss wins the game out right.

OLE MISS 28 LSU 27

3. ARK -1.5 @ MISS ST Taking the SEC bye week theory on this one as the Razorbacks are coming off a bye week while State was in a fist fight with Bama last week. The Bulldogs come back bloodied and bruised, while Arkansas should be fresh (over past 2 years SEC teams coming off a bye playing an unrested team are over 75% ATS). State has difficulty scoring as they rank #116 in the nation averaging a meager 15.2 pts./game. It looks like they will be rotating QBs with T. Lee and W. Carroll which is not good at this pint in the year. The Hawgs seem to be improving as they beat Tulsa and had narrow losses to KY and So Car. The Hawg O looks to be improving as the year goes under new HC B. Petrino led by QB C. Dick and RB M. Smith. I really like giving Petrino an extra week to prepare against Croom and Co. Also, Arkansas can get bowl eligible if they win their last 2 games. State has nothing to play for. ARK 23 STATE 17

OTHER GAMES I LIKE BUT DID NOT MAKE THE CUT:

BUFF +4 (FRI NIGHT), PITT +6, COLO ST -2, RICE -9, CLEM -2.5, HOU -17, UTAH -7, ARIZ -2.5, MEMPHIS -5.5, UNLV -10.

GOOD LUCK