Lou’s Locks: The Turkish Edition

The Turkey Awards by the Wizard of Odds

Like I say every year, I love the Thanksgiving holiday. Food, family and football. It’s rivalry week, and there are some really large lines involving BCS hopefuls but for the most part the lines are very sharp this week. Another winning week last week as we went 2-1, bought the half point on the Boise win, Ole Miss won out right and Ark lost a shoot out. That brings the yearly total to 22-16-1 ATS.

If you have not noticed, as I predicted, the BCS political campaign was in full attack mode this week as Okla. HC B. Stoops openly questioned why Okla. was still behind Texas in the BCS rankings. Stoops also confirmed that he did not vote in the Coaches’ Poll, but when asked whether it was a protest against the BCS system, Stoops choose not to answer the question, simply saying that he did not want his decision on the issue to be focus of the debate. The built-in bias of the Coaches’ Poll will be evident from here on in. I expect Pete Carroll (already panned the BCS a couple of weeks back) and Mack Brown to be heard from soon as well.  Mike Leach will be too busy hunting for hidden treasures to make a comment. It is going to be interesting to see how everything shakes out in the Big 12, but it looks like there are about 5 teams with legitimate shots at the BCS. THE SECC game will most likely be a play-in game and the opponent will most likely be Okla., Texas or T Tech. USC has an outside shot to get in, but a lot would need to occur for that scenario to play out. Now onto the Locks, it will be a topsy turvy, bounce back week as all my picks are all coming off loses last week. Plus one bonus pick for the Iron Bowl.

1. T TECH -21 v. BAYLOR  Speaking of Mike Leach and the Red Pirates, Texas Tech laying 3 TDs is the first pick. It is senior night in Lubbock, and the Red Raiders will be looking to get the Sooner bad taste out of their mouth. What a better way to do it than having a Baylor team who struggles to stop the pass come into town. The Bears have struggled mightily against the good passing teams in the Big 12 giving up 337 yds./Mizzou, 300 yds/Texas and 372/Okla. through the air. QB G. Harrell will look to get back on track this week after struggling last week. Harrell has feasted on Baylor the past 2 years completing 72 of 98 passes for 916 yds., 7 TDs and 1 INT. I expect more of the same, as T Tech could go for 400 in the air. Baylor has improved this year and looks to be an up and coming team in the Big 12 with a good young QB R. Griffin. But their 4 wins this year have been against NW State, Wash St., Iowa St. and A&M.  T Tech gets healthy this week. T TECH 49 BAYLOR 20

2. UNC -8 @ DUKE Although HC David Cuttcliff has done an admirable job for Duke this year, the Blue Devils are banged up and running out of gas. Duke has lost 6 of it past 7 games and starting QB T. Lewis and starting RB C. Harris are injured and most likely not playing this week. In the past 2 games, Duke was out gained by 300 yds. (Clemson) and 200 yds. (VT) and managed to score just 10 points in those 2 games. It won’t get any better as UNC brings in the ACC’s top rated defense to Durham. While UNC is stumbling a bit recently, look for RB S. Draughn and WR H. Nicks to have big days against a beat up Duke defense. I just do not se how Duke is going to score any points in this game as they have the #102 rushing O in the nation and their all star QB is injured.  I see the Tar heels taking out a bit of frustration in this one. UNC 28 DUKE 3

3. LSU -4.5 @ ARK  Back to the SEC for the next pick this week. LSU looked rough last week, and I think you can get some value here as they are being undervalued after the poor showing.  LSU should be a 7-8 point favorite here, IMO. I know, I know ….  LSU does not have a QB, but it will not matter as the mismatch in this one is found in the running game. Ark. is the worst rushing D in the SEC giving up 172 yds/game on the ground.  This week that defense will be without starting DL E. Mitchell and A. Robinson (suspended from the team) and LB W. Davis (injured). LSU RBs C. Scott and K. Williams should run roughshod irrespective of whether Jefferson or Lee play QB for the Tigaz. The LSU OL should dominate a depleted Ark. DL in this one. The injuries do not stop on D for the Hawgs as RB M. Smith (injured-out) and QB C. Dick (injury/performance) will not start. Casey’s younger brother Nathan Dick will start at QB. LSU is just too good not to win this game comfortably against the worst team in the SEC. LSU 30 ARK 17

BONUS PICK — IRON BOWL — TOTAL UNDER 41.5 POINTS I know this may seem like a cop out for not picking a side in this one, but the number looks really sharp to me as Bama is currently a 14.5 point favorite. Bama should win this game, and by a comfortable margin, based upon how everything has played out this year. But you can never discount HC T. Tubberville when playing a top 5 team (4-1 SU), and you have to consider the SEC road dog catching 14+ points theory (over 65% ATS past 5 years).  I am just not sure how Auburn can score unless it comes with a ST score or a TO deep in Bama territory. Bama has been a brick against the run this year led by NT T. Cody and LB L. McClain. If Auburn cannot get a decent running game going, then the pressure falls squarely on QB K. Burns who has looked a bit better recently, but is still a work in progress to say it nicely. Also, Aub has squandered many scoring opportunities this year with missed FGs and turnovers in the red zone. With Bama’s ball hawking secondary and Saban’s quirky blitz schemes, it could be a long day for Mr. Burns. On the other side, Bama will try and establish the run as it has done in almost every game this year by following the left side of the OL (Smith, Johnson and Caldwell). At times, Auburn has looked great on D, but has had tons of injuries this year and has had a lot of missed tackles leading to big plays. I see a tough fought game for the first 3 quarters, but Bama pulling away safely in the end. BAMA 24 AUB 10, TAKE THE UNDER.

OTHER GAMES I LIKE BUT DID NOT MAKE CUT:

OHIO -1, OLE MISS -15, NEB -18, NCST +1.5, VANDY +4, UVA +8, NEV -4.5, RICE +3, TULSA -15.5.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING AND GOOD LUCK