Take that to the SEC Criminal Game

Well here we are, the final week of the regular season of CFB with Championships to be decided. Cannot believe the CFB season is coming to an end. Man, it flew by this year. I may do a couple of Bowl Editions of the Locks and will definitely chime in on the BCS NC game. Went 1-2-1 last week as LSU blew a 16 point lead to make it a losing week instead of a winning week. Overall record is still respectable at 23-18-2 ATS. Really like this week’s card and hopefully we can get back on the winning side.

Well it is pretty much set. The winner of Bama/Fla will play either Okla. (if they win Big 12) or Texas (if Mizzou upsets Okla.) Nice and clean like the BCS wanted it. As everyone should know by now, I cannot stand the BCS system and how a NC is determined in CFB. However, those complaining about the BCS selecting Okla. over Texas for the Big 12 South division winner have misplaced their venom. The BCS has one primary purpose …. to pit #1 v. #2 for the NC. It also selects the highest ranked non-BCS team to take part in the BCS bowls, if they are ranked in top 12 or higher, and has the ND exception (this one really pisses me off) which allows ND to play in a BCS bowl game if they are ranked in top 10. It was not set up to determine a conference rep to a Championship game. The Big 12 should have some other tie breaker to make that selection. The interesting part to me was that Texas was ahead of Okla. in both of the human polls, but got jobbed by the computers (1/3 of the equation). Was it fair to Texas? No, not at all. But it is hard to argue that Okla. is not the best team right now in the Big 12. Hats off to Texas HC M. Brown who handled the entire mess with class. You think Stoops would have done the same? Doubt it. But we have bigger fish to fry this weekend …..onto the Locks.

1. BAMA +10 v. FLA (ATL) Osama Bin Laden v. Sadam Hussein …. Godzilla v. King Kong. Think of any of the two biggest villains in the history of the world and that is how this match-up goes for me as my 2 biggest rivals go head to head . Therefore, it was very easy for me to have zero bias in capping this game. The biggest SECC game in its history and a play-in for the BCS NC game. Old school football versus the new computer age of football. Does it get any bigger or better? In breaking this game down, I first looked at the stats and trends which favor the Gators. The Gators are an amazing 10-1 ATS this year and Bama is 9-3 ATS. Florida ranks in the top 5 in the SEC in almost every category (Offense, rushing = 1, passing = 5, scoring = 1 and total = 1; Defense, rushing = 3, passing = 3, scoring = 2 and total = 3). Bama is not chopped liver (Offense, rushing = 2, passing = 8, scoring = 2 and total = 6; Defense, rushing = 1, passing = 5, scoring = 1 and total = 1). But I think you have to look beyond the stats. First, Bama is #1 and getting double digit points. Bama has not lost a game by more than 7 points in the past 2 years. Florida feasts on early turnovers (#1 in nation in TO margin)to jump on teams quickly, and Bama is not prone to turn it over and also excels in the first half of games. In looking at the personnel, you have to start with Fla. QB T. Tebow who will be the best player on the field (man, that caused a real chest pain to say that). Not only is he a great QB but he is a better leader. Then you have WR P. Harvin, RB J. Demps (left practice Thur. with a sore groin) and RB C. Rainey (all 3 average over 8 yds/carry). Harvin will play I expect but will not be 100% (did not practice all week) which is absolutely huge. The Gator D is led by LB B. Spikes and is fast and nasty. The Gators do have a couple of injuries on the DL (DT B. Antwine hurt knee at F$U and is out) which will hurt their depth (only 4 DTs available). On the Bama side you have very few real superstars which is the way this team is built by HC N. Saban. Sure, WR J. Jones is a freak and RBs G. Coffee and M. Ingram are having super seasons, but the real difference makers on the Tide reside on the OL (A. Smith and A. Caldwell) and the DL (Mount Cody) and that is where this game will be won. Florida had a smallish DL and is not 100% healthy. Look no further than Auburn for the key to the game, IMO. In ’06 and ’07 Auburn did the best job of holding down the Gators. Who was DC for Aub? Will Muschamp. Where did Muschamp get his start? Yes, under Saban. Who do you think is better the master or the student? I think you will see the Bama D try and make Tebow be a runner (avg. only 3yd/carry this year) and lock down the other RBs on the option plays. Also, Bama will obviously try and prevent the explosive plays and must tackle well in space. On the other side, I think Bama will use the game plan they used against UT ….. throw on 1st downs, then use the running game behind the left side. Sarah Jessica Parker Wilson must not turn the ball over and needs to convert on 3rd downs to keep the chains moving. I expect this game to turn into a street fight which favors Bama. Tide wins in a close game. Remember to buy the half point as the line is a critical number ….10.
BAMA 28 FLA 27

2. BC (PICK) v. VT (TAMPA) This is a re-match of last year’s ACCC game where the Hokies avenged an early season loss against BC. Well, BC won earlier this year, but I do not expect VT to have the same fortune that they did last year. BC is hot winning its last 4 games to pass everyone in its division. The Eagles are led by their Defense (#8 in nation in total D and #14 in scoring D) and are strong up the middle with monster DTs BJ Raji and R. Brace. The Hokies are also strong on D (#6 in nation in total D and #16 in scoring D) led by do everything DB M. Harris. BC QB C. Crane was injured 2 weeks ago and BC will go with RS frosh D. Davis who looked good last week completing over 50% of his passes and throwing 2 TDs. The real key is frosh RB M. Harris who has been great down the stretch. The Hokies have struggled on O this year going back and forth between QBs S. Glennon and T. Taylor. Taylor got a little banged up last week but is expected to play. VT relies on their own frosh RB D. Evans to make plays. This should be a defensive struggle and a low scoring game. BC just looks to me to be the best team. BC 20 VT 13

3. OKLA -17 v. MIZZOU (KC) Man, I hate laying this many points in a title game, but just cannot see backing the Tigers here. The Sooners are as hot as any team in the nation recently scoring in bunches in the last 4 games (62 = Neb, 66 = A&M, 65 = TTech and 61= Ok St). Now they get to go against the worst pass D in the Big 12. Sooner QB S. Bradford is having a huge year and is surrounded by weapons in RBs D. Murray and C. Brown as well as WRs Gresham and Iglesias. They also have one of the best OLs in the nation which should help keep Bradford clean against Mizzou DE S. Sulak (8.5 sacks). In order to stay in this game, the Mizzou D will have to play its best game. They will also need help from QB C. Daniel and WR. J. Maclin (88 rec., 1,175 yds, 11 TDs). Watch for Maclin on KOs as well because Okla. is horrendous on KO coverage. The pressure is all on the Sooners here, but I think they just have too much firepower here and will not let this chance slip away.
OKLA 56 MIZZOU 31

BONUS PICK: ECAR/TULSA OVER 65.5 The C-USA championship game features the high flying Tulsa Hurricanes against the once upstart E. Car. Pirates. Tulsa leads the nation in total O and is #2 in scoring O (avg. 49.3 pts./game). Tulsa also boasts a terrible D (#94 total D and #83 scoring D). This usually adds up to an over. Also, the Pirates looked to be in early season form (when they beat VT and WVA) as they scored 53 last week on UTEP. Pirates are led by QB P. Pinkney, RBs B. Simmons and N. Whitely and WR D. Freeney. Tulsa has a no huddle attack (OC G. Malzahn) led by QB T. Graham and WR. B. Morrison. Tulsa is 6-0 at home this year (game played at Tulsa) with an average winning margin of 62-22. Look for lots of points in this one. TULSA 45 ECAR 35

GOOD LUCK