Got back on the winning track last week going 2-1 ATS (2-4 ATS for the year). Updating last week, the Locks had Kan. -13 for an easy win over UTEP, Vandy + 14.5 with a half point win over LSU (whew!) and the loss with UAB getting beat outright by SMU. A very interesting week last week with Michigan coming from behind to upset ND, U$C barely winning in a dog fight with O$U, Ok. St. taking the “gas” against Houston, a score fest in Athens won by the Dawgs on the last play and my boys giving away a winnable game at home to UCLA. It looks to me like there are about 4-5 elite teams …..Fla., Tex., Bama, U$C, BYU and now Mia (F). Everyone else seems to have serious question marks. Not saying these teams do not, but through the first couple of weeks these teams have shown some separation.

A very interesting week coming up. Based upon the media hype you would think that the Fla/Tenn game was the Cowboys and Steelers from the 70s. Tenn. is a 30 point dog (biggest underdog in UT history) and everyone in the media is looking for a blood bath. The media frenzy reminds me of Nero and the Romans enjoying lions eating Christians at the Circus. The Vols should just stay at home and let Herban and Teabag play Nintendo against each other on the Jumbotron in the Swamp, because everyone knows that the Gates can just name the score in this one. I seriously thought about making the Vols one of my locks just as a show of support, but did not do it for 2 reasons. First, I would definitely jinx them, and they would lose 174-0. Next, the Vols are a turn over machine and could give the Gates 21 right off the bat. So I am laying off. Lots of big line movement early this week as 2 of my initial leans went against me. I liked Kansas again and they opened up -19 at home versus Duke. The line is now -23.5 and almost all the value seems to be gone. Likewise, I liked Ky. -11 v. L’ville, but the line has climbed to -14 so a no play as well. One thing I am looking into is playing against “bad” teams. I had several to choose from this week, and one of them made the top 3. Also, I am going back to the “SEC bye week” well this week. Over the past 2 years, when an SEC team is coming off a bye week and playing an unrested team, the team coming off the bye covers at over 75% rate. Will be keeping my eye on this one as the year progresses. Ok, now on to the Locks.

1. BAYLOR -10 v. UCONN You may think I have lost my mind by playing Baylor as a DD favorite, but hear me out on this one. HC A. Briles has a very good Baylor team this year returning 18 starters from last year. Two weeks ago they went to WF and pulled out a W. Now they are back home fired up after a week of rest coming off a bye week. UCONN just lost a heart breaker to UNC last week where they blew a 10-0 4th quarter lead and the Huskies come into this game really beat-up. Baylor has a huge edge in athletes all across the board. It starts with soph. QB R. Griffin who may be the fastest QB in CFB. He can also pass the ball completing over 60% of his passes last year with a 15 TD/3 INT ratio. His main target is 6’4″ track member WR Gattis who had 5 rec. for 65 yds and a TD against WF. RB J. Finley carries the load on the ground (along with Griffin) and had 91 yds on 14 carries in Winston-Salem. UCONN is beat up badly after last week. Starting QB Frazer is out and back-up Endres was battling a stomach virus all week. Endres will get the start, but true frosh QB Box may play. UCONN also has some injuries on D as MLB and captain Lutrus has a neck injury and is questionable and DE Witten (7 sacks) is questionable as well. One might think UCONN could just pound the run on Baylor and keep this close, but Baylor’s D is vastly improved over last year. In the middle they have 6’4″ 345 lb. DT P. Taylor (transfer from Penn St.) and at LB the Bears have AA candidate J. Pawelek who had 7 tackles, 1 sack and 1 INT against WF. Baylor has too much fire power for UCONN and knows it needs this game if it wants to go bowling this year. UCONN will not be able to match Baylor’s effort and cannot keep up the pace. Baylor has 7 straight ATS wins, they make it 8 this Saturday. BAYLOR 35 UCONN 13

2. ARK -2 v. UGA The SEC “bye week theory” is in play in this one. In 2007, SEC teams coming off a bye week when playing an unrested team were 8-2 ATS. Last year each team had 2 bye weeks and the numbers on this theory were 13-5 ATS. That is 21-7 ATS over 2 years, not a bad system. Arkansas had a scrimmage game against Missouri St. in week 1 and was off last week. HC B. Petrino has been planning all summer for this game. UGA is coming off 2 really tough games they split against Ok. St. and So. Car. The Dawgs won last week but were outgained by the Cocks 427 yds. to 308 yds. The injuries continue to mount for the Dawgs as they lost DE R. Battle for the year (ACL) after losing OL T. Sturdivant the week earlier. UGA has not been able to run the ball successfully this year putting the pressure on QB J. Cox to deliver. Cox is shaky at best even though he has freaks at WR with AJ Green, M. Moore, T. King and T. Wilson. The Hawgs return 18 starters from last year and are led on O by 6’6″ 250 lb. QB R. Mallet (transfer from Mich) who was 17/22/309/1 TD in his debut. He will throw to a talented group at WR with J. Wright, J. Adams, L. Crawford and TE DJ Williams. Ark. also is loaded at RB with the returning SEC leader in rushing M. Smith, U$C transfer B. Green, true frosh R. Wingo (8 rushes/50 yds) and D. Johnson (91 yd. KO return). On D Ark. returns all 4 DL led by M. Sheppard. It will be tough for the Dawgs to get up for the 3rd straight game and this is Petrino’s coming out party. ARK 31 UGA 24

3. SMU -6 @ WAZZU Taking SMU as a fave on the road is usually a recipe for disaster, but I am mainly playing against the worst BCS team in the nation in Wash. St. in this one. HC P. Wulff probably already has his bags packed as the Cougars have gotten off to a 0-2 start losing to Stanford and Hawaii in lopsided games at home. SMU rides into this game on a 2 game winning streak in HC J. Jones 2nd year at the helm. If SMU wins, they will be 3-0 for the first time since 1996. Last week, Jones old team Hawaii lit up Wazzu to the tune of 626 total yds (453 passing). Jones and the Ponies must be licking their chops as they feasted on a good UAB D last week. QB Bo Levi Mitchell (28/47/353/3TDs last week) is hitting his stride with WRs E. Sanders and A. Robinson. Now SMU has a running threat in RB Shawnbrey McNeal (“Da U” transfer) who has 225 yds/2 TDs in 2 games. The biggest difference between this year and last year for SMU is TOs. Last year SMU was -13 in TOs. This year they already have 11 take aways and only 3 TOs. Last week alone Wazzu turned the ball over 7 times. That spells disaster for a slow team that cannot get off the mat. Wazzu is usually a very tough place to play, but the Bows came in from the island and had no problems. I don’t see many for SMU. Take the ponies and lay the short number. SMU 38 WAZZU 21

OTHER GAMES I LIKE BUT DID NOT MAKE THE CUT:

CLEM -7, KAN. -23.5, WASH +21, KY -14, SDST -3, F$U +7.5, UNLV -7, SJST +17.5 AND CINCY +1

GOOD LUCK