
Well the Locks needed that last week, going 4-0 ATS to bring the overall record to 6-10 ATS. Recapping last week, we had Wisky catching 3 points and an outright winner, Wash. plus 13 losing in OT to the Luck of the Irish, Tulsa -16 barely covering the number by 1 and the OGDS going with La. Monroe over FIU. Glad to get our legs back under us and hope to continue this mini-streak.
A huge weekend coming up with a lot of great games on tap. Line movement has been crazy this week. For instance, Bama opened at -5 went all the way to -8 and now is back to -5. Initially, I really loved Bama in this spot as they are dominant in every category, Saban always has them up for big road games, and Snead worries more about his bangs than his passes. However, the crazy movement, and the Right Reverend Houston Nutt scared me off (this game is right up Nutt’s alley). I still like Bama to pound Ole Miss but some other games made the cut. Also, Houston opened as a 3 point favorite at Miss. St. and the line is now State -2. Tons of love for the Bullies, and I can see why as Houston is likely to go into the tank after losing to UTEP last week. Why is Tennessee favored this week? Somebody must know something I don’t.
Has anyone noticed how many different CFB talk shows are on now? I am thinking about starting one myself. One I watched this week was This Week in the SEC. It is so bad I could not watch more than 10 minutes. David Pollack (whose motor never stops running) is a joke. He looks like he weighs a buck 70, wears tons of make-up and adds nothing of substance to the conversation. I guess his weight loss can be attributed to him missing his boy friend David Geene. Then last night Dr. Lou made me incredibly happy as he gave his pep talk to LSU ….we are fading Granny which was a big winner the past 2 years. I have found myself not even paying any attention to the polls as it seems they have no idea what they are doing. How can you rank Ole Miss ahead of So Car? I often wonder if these guys watch CFB at all or do they just catch the ESPN highlights and then cast their ballots. Not so for the Locks Lucky 7 as there is some movement and a tie at the top. 1. Fla., 1.(tie) Bama, 3. Tex., 4. Boise., 5. Cincy, 6. LSU 7. VT ……. and just outside are TCU, Iowa, Kan and U$C. Now onto the Locks.
1. KAN -18.5 v. IOWA ST The Jayhawks are a favorite of the Locks, and they again find themselves on the board. HC Mangino is not a “looker” but he will cover a spread like you read about. Kansas comes into this match-up well rested off a bye week, and a 6 game winning streak dating back to last year. On the other hand, the Cyclones enter the game reeling from a heart breaking loss to K. State (24-23) where the extra point was blocked with 30 seconds left in the game. Now Iowa St. has to face a very good Kansas offense (#6 in total O, #6 in scoring O, #16 rushing O and #12 pass O) led by QB T. Reesing and WRs K. Meier and D. Briscoe. The Jayhawks also get back RB J. Sharp from injury. The mis-match in this one is Iowa St.’s anemic passing game (#106). The only real weak link on the Jayhawks is their pass D and the Cyclones will not be able to exploit this. Iowa St relies on its ground game (#20 rushing O) but Kansas is a brick wall against the run (#3 in rush D). To complicate matters, Iowa St’s leading rusher RB A. Robinson is not 100% leaving in the 2nd quarter last week with a pulled groin. That leaves all of the offense on QB A. Arnaud’s shoulders which is not a good thing for the Cyclones. Iowa St may keep it close for a half, but the Jayhawks turn on the jets and fly to an easy win.
KAN 41 IOWA ST 16
2. FLA -7.5 @ LSU Everyone and their Grandmother is calling for the upset in Baton Rouge this weekend. I keep hearing about the night game mystique of Tiger Stadium, and the fact that Teabag is probably not going to play and how this effects Florida on offense. Has everyone forgotten about how good the Gator D is? How is LSU going to score in this game? LSU’s offensive numbers through 5 games are not good (#99 in total O, #62 in scoring O, #66 in rush O and #86 in pass O). Compare that with Florida’s defensive numbers (#1 in total D, #2 in scoring D, #2 in pass D and #17 in rush D). Last week LSU escaped with a W in Athens with a little the help and a ton of luck. LSU’s OL is not very good, giving up 6 sacks to UGA who had only 2 sacks coming into that game. Now they are without starting OG L. Hitt and face a nasty tandem of DEs in J. Cunningham and C. Dunlap and AA LB B. Spikes. On the other side of the ball, Florida is #3 in total O and #2 in scoring O. People forget that back-up QB J. Brantley was a top 5 QB coming out of HS, plus he has a few weapons in RBs Rainey and Demps, plus TE A. Hernandez. One of the biggest mis-matches is Herban v. The Hat. Surely, The Hat has used all 9 of his lives as he seems to be the luckiest HC in all of CFB (other than maybe Fat Charlie). You give Herban an extra week to prepare and it is no contest. The SEC Bye Week Theory is in play here as well. Plus, Fade Granny Holtz is in play. And if that is not enough, in the past 6 games against Florida, LSU is 1-5 ATS. Teabag or no Teabag, the Gates get it done this weekend. Remember to buy the half point off a critical number from 7.5 to 7. FLA 27 LSU 12
3. GT + 3 @ F$U Can things be more in disarray in Tallahassee with all the talk of Diddy Bowden needing to pack his bags? Word on the street is that there is plenty of dissension among the staff, and Jimbo Fisher is trying to assert his power as the coach in waiting. With back to back losses to S. Fla and BC, the Noles seem to be reeling. Just the opposite is the case for the Jackets as they come off impressive back to back wins over UNC and Miss St. HC P. Johnson is very underrated and always seems to have his teams well prepared. Picking this game is going against a ton of trends, as GT has never won in Doak-Campbell Stadium and F$U holds a huge advantage winning 5 of the last 6 ATS. But in fighting on a staff is a killer (just ask Auburn and UT fans). The Yellow Jacket triple option attack is not easy to defend led by QB J. Nesbitt and RB J. Dwyer and the Noles are a lethargic #98 in total defense and #112 in pass D. Last week Nesbitt had his best passing day in his life throwing for 266 yds. completing most of them to WR D. Thomas. F$U has plenty of athletes and may be able to circle the wagons in support of their beleaguered HC, but I just do not see any way that can overcome all of the distractions and focus for a team that is fundamentally sound on both sides of the ball. I see GT winning this game straight up, but buy the half point from 3 to 3.5 just in case. GT 27 F$U 23
4. OBSCURE GAME DEGENERATE SPECIAL Well it worked last week so will keep going with it. This week’s obscure game/degenerate special is Idaho +4 @ SJST. The vandals have been in cash cow this year (4-0 ATS) and are actually winning some games, beating Colo. St last week. Some might think it is time to jump off this train, but I still will ride them. Just a few stats here. SJST is ranked #120 in total D (last in NCAA) and #114 in total O. Idaho is a respectable #57 in total D and #39 in total O. Take this gift to the bank and maybe throw a little on Idaho on the ML. Idaho 27 SJST 20



can’t argue re: florida’s defense (although didn’t the vols score on them?) we have to get better on offense pronto…but it looks like C.Scott is getting untracked after a slow start–last year he got off to a quick start and faded down the stretch. our d has improved under 3rd and chavis and will be uber pumped for the game, teabow or not. brantly won’t be able to hear himself think.
anyway, since you’re throwing out stats, why don’t you find out the last time florida won at night in tiger stadium. 99, 01 and 03 were all day games. what about the last time florida came in as #1 at night? give u a hint–Kevin Faulk was on the cover of S.I. that week. finally, Herbs is aught-for-two in tiger stadium. the wizard and the hat will have a little trickeration for herbs.
Well how did that one work out for you “Fear the Hat”?