Lou’s Locks

It’s that time again, another week of CFB prognostication. The Locks went 2-2 ATS last week for a 3rd week in a row bringing the overall total to 15-17 ATS (13-7 the last 5 weeks). The 2 winners last week were Cincy -15 and GT -11.5 both covering easily (GT had a scare going into the 4th quarter but ended up winning by 25). The 2 losers were UGA +15.5 and Idaho -3. The Dawgs got stomped in the Cocktail party and the Vandals won by 1. Still trying to get above the .500 mark and this week there is a good slate of games highlighted by a few titanic match-ups including Bama/LSU, Penn St/O$U and Okla/Neb. I really like this board and hopefully have chosen the rights ones to play.

Lots of controversy in CFB this week involving the anointed ones …..the Florida Gates. AA LB Brandon Spikes was involved in an eye gouging incident that led HC Herban Meyer to announce that this was a “teaching moment” for his team, and he followed that up with a stiff penalty for Spikes of a suspension from the Vandy game for the 1st half. Spikes later announced he was suspending himself for the entire game. Damn, those Gates are tough on discipline down in Gunsville. Like Herban says “the top 1 % of the top 1%.” Herban made more news by criticizing the SEC officials in the UGA/Fla game for a hit Teabag took on a play that Herban thought was against the rules. This will be interesting to see how the SEC office handles this statement now that Mike Slive (SEC Commissioner) has put out a “zero tolerance” policy on HCs complaining about the officials. Since Slive is clearly Jeremy Foley’s (Fla AD) organ monkey, I highly doubt any action will be taken. I think all the pressure of trying to repeat as NC is getting to Herban and the Gates. We will see how they handle it coming down the stretch. Not a ton of movement in the top teams in the BCS Poll last week as the Iowa Luckeyes continue to win ugly. The Locks Lucky 7 this week is as follows: 1. Texas, 1. Fla., 1. Bama, 4. Cincy, 5. TCU, 6. Iowa and 7. Oregon. Some really strange line movement this week on several game. Hou. opened up as a 2.5 point favorite at Tulsa and the line has moved to Tulsa being a 1 point favorite ….What? Also, Okla. opened as a 6.5 point favorite at Neb. and that initially made the short list for the Locks. Now that line has gone to Okla being favored by only 4.5 ….somebody must know something I don’t. So what games made the cut?

1. BAMA -7.5 v. LSU A titanic clash in T-town that will for all intents and purposes determine the SECW champ, and a trip to ATL to face the Gates. The SEC Bye Week Theory (4-3 ATS this year, and 70% ATS over past 3 years) is in play as Bama is coming off a bye. This line opened with Bama being favored by 9 and was bet down to 7.5 early in the week. Some places have it at as much as 8.5, but I will take the best line available ….-7.5 (also buy the half point down to 7, a critical number). In looking for a mis-match in this game, one need look no further than the trenches. Bama has a decided advantage in OL versus LSU’s DL. LSU is last in the SEC in sacks and is not its usual self in stopping the run. We all know Bama can run the ball (#13 rushing O in nation) led by RB M. Ingram, but when Bama QB McElroy has time to throw he is very efficient. The play action pass plays should be there for Bama. Now LSU’s D is very good especially at LB (K. Sheppard) and DB (C. Jones and P. Peterson), but if Bama can establish the run, then it is game over. On the opposite side of the ball is where the real advantage lies for the Tide. LSU’s OL is not very good in the run game (LSU #100 in total O and #69 in rush O) and is even worse at pass protection (allowed 23 sacks and #96 pass O). Bama’s DL is scary good and leads the SEC in sacks getting consistent pressure from DE M. Dareus as well as coming up with complex blitz packages from the Li’l General Nicky Saban. Bama’s D numbers are off the chart (#4 in total D, #5 in scoring D, #2 in rush D and #20 in pass D) and if LSU has a chance it will be on the back of QB J. Jefferson. Sorry, I cannot trust him in a hostile environment. As much as I hate to say it, Bama wins here. BAMA 23 LSU 10

2. A&M -3 @ COLO The Dan Hawkins era at Colorado is unofficially over with the Buffs last two losses to KST and Mizzou. The Buffs are 2-6 and going nowhere fast. The Aggies have turned it around with 2 straight wins (out scoring their opponents 87-40) over T Tech and Iowa St. In looking at this game, the thing that pops out at you is that the Aggies have an O (#3 total O, #8 scoring O, #23 rush O and # 12 pass O) while the Buffs do not (#113 total O, #96 scoring O, #114 rush O and #71 pass O). While neither team has a very good defense, A&M has been able to generate a pass rush in recent games which should help against new Buff QB T. Hanson. In another note of bad news for Colorado, heralded RB D. Scott announced this week he was leaving the team and transferring. Scott has been banged up all year and has not contributed as expected, but it cannot be good news for Hawkins. A&M is led by QB J. Johnson who is on fire lately completing almost 70% of his passes the past 3 weeks. The Aggies also have found a running game lately as RB C. Gray has rushed for 250 yds the past 2 games. While Colo is flaky enough to play great this week (remember Kansas 3 weeks ago), it appears that Hawkins (“this is D-1 football, man”) has lost the team. There is no way Colorado can keep up in a score fest with the Aggies, and if A&M can not have a ton of TOs, this one could be over at half time. Remember to buy the half point here down to -2.5, as 3 is a critical number. A&M 37 COLO 21

3. ORE ST +7 AT CAL This game pits 2 teams playing their best of the season and should determine bowl pecking order in the PAC-10. The Beavers (gotta love them Beavers) are 3-1 in their last 4 games beating Ariz. St, Stanford and UCLA, with the only loss coming at the hands of U$C in a close one. Cal enters this one on a 3 game winning streak after imploding against Oregon and U$C. Both teams have prolific offenses and bad pass defenses, so it should be a high scoring affair (take the over). This tilt also features the best 2 RBs in the Pac-10 in J. Best for Cal and J. Rogers for Ore. St. In capping this game, the thing that caught my attention was the QBs. The Beaver QB S. Canfield is #3 in QB efficiency in the PAC-10 and has been lights out the past month as Oregon St. has averaged over 30 points a game with the emergence of WRs J. Rogers (brother of RB) and D. Adeniji . Cal’s QB K. Riley is like a hotel shower …. all hot or all cold. He has been hot lately as Cal has scored 117 points in the last 3 games, but I expect him to go back to cold sooner rather than later. Both teams are pretty stout against the run (Ore St = #27 rush D and Cal = #30 rush D) so this game appears to be on the QBs. I will side with the more efficient Canfield catching a TD. For insurance buy the half point to make it +7.5.

ORE ST 35 CAL 34

OBSCURE GAME DEGENERATE SPECIAL (UTEP -7 @ Tulane) The Miners come into this game after a bad loss to UAB where they outgained the Blazers by over 150 yds. Tulane is just a bad team and the Miners will look to get healthy in an almost empty Superdome. Miner QB Vittatoe and RB D. Buckram should put up a ton of points here.

Good Luck!