Heading down the home stretch of the CFB season still looking to get to .500. We went 2-2 ATS for the 4th straight week last week bringing the overall total to 17-19 (ATS) after a dismal 2-10 start to the season. Last week we had wins on Ore. St (+7) who won outright (31-14) over Cal, and we had some good fortune winning with Bama (-7.5) over LSU with an assist from SEC Comm. Mike Slive making sure the replay officials got the incomplete/INT call right allowing Bama to drive for the covering FG. Two bad beats on our losses. First, A&M (-3) lost to Colo. (35-34) but were up 21-10 at the half and were up 31-21 in the 4th quarter. An even worse beat came with UTEP (-6.5) up 38-31 stopping Tulane on 4th down with 4:09 left in game. UTEP then got a 1st down to seemingly ice the game. Tulane used its final 2 TOs and forced UTEP to punt. Tulane got the ball at its own 14 with 1:13 remaining. The Wave proceeded to go 86 yds. in 9 plays and scored on an 11yd. TD pass with .01 second reaming to force OT and eventually win the game. It could have easily been a 4-0 week last week. But we will march on knowing that we capped most of these games correctly and the luck will turn our way soon.

Not a ton of marquee games on the board this week and most of the lines appear to be pretty sharp. Last week there were some important games effecting the BCS and conference championships. Iowa’s luck finally ran out as they lost to N’ western and all the talk of undefeated and a BCS game came crashing down. Now they have to try and re-group without their QB (Stanzi) and go play a hot O$U team. For all intents and purposes this game will decide the Big 10 Champ. The hottest team in CFB, the Oregon Ducks, lost a high scoring game to Stanford to squelch all the talk of a BCs birth for them. more importantly, that loss greatly affects Boise’s SOS and its argument for an entry into the BCS talks. And with Bama’s win over LSU, the SECC game is set to pit Fla. v. Bama in ATL on Dec. 5th and appears to be a play in game for the BCS NC. It looks like we are heading toward a Texas v. Bama/Fla winner for the BCS NC as Texas has an easy road from here on in. But as we all know, there is no sure thing in CFB. The one team in a non-BCS conference that should be getting some love is TCU. The Frogs are very good and deserve to be in the conversation. This week’s Locks Lucky 7 are as follows: 1. Fla., 1. Bama, 1. Tex., 4. TCU, 5. Cincy, 6. GT, 7. LSU. Now onto this week picks.

1. MISS ST +13.5 v. BAMA This is mainly an SEC Bye Week theory play (5-3 ATS this year and over 70% last 3 years) as the Bullies are coming off an open week and Bama is coming off a very physical/emotional game against LSU. Bama clinched the SECW and you have to wonder if this is a letdown spot for the Tide. In the past 4 games, Bama has averaged only 20 points/game and the O is not clicking on all cylinders. RB M. Ingram is playing lights out and is the leader for the Hypesman, but QB G. McElroy has struggled and seems to be more worried about how he is perceived by his haters than how his team is performing. State relies heavily on the run game with RBs A. Dixon who ran for 252 yds against KY and has 3,604 career rushing yds. and RB C. Ducre, but this is not a great match-up for them (#12 rushing O and #105 pass O in the nation) and Bama is only allowing 68yds/game on the ground (#2 rush D). But you can expect a few new wrinkles in the O with an extra week to prepare from HC D. Mullen as he goes with a 2 headed QB system of C. Relf and T. Lee. Mullen has done a great job at State and may be the main reason the Fla. Gouger O is struggling (he was OC at Fla last year). State has a solid D and held up well against 2 very good running teams in GT and Fla. The Bullies will make this very interesting for 3 quarters if they can avoid the crucial TOs, and should keep this one within the number. BAMA 24 STATE 16

2. ORE ST -13 v. WASH I am going to keep riding the hot team here as the Beavers are really playing great under HC M. Riley and are climbing the PAC-10 ladder. While the Beavers are on the uptick, the Huskies are in free fall mode as they have dropped 5 of 6 since they shocked U$C. Last week Ore. St. easily handled Cal without a ton of contribution from the Rogers brothers who are there best offensive weapons. Beaver QB S. Canfield should be getting all conference consideration as he is extremely accurate and is spreading the ball around to a lot of people including WR D. Adeniji and TE J. Halaluni. The big mismatch in this one is Ore St.’s O versus Wash.’s D. Ore. St is #33 in total O and #19 in pass O while Wash ranks #102 in total D and #111 in pass D. I just don not see how Wash is going to come into Corvallis and stop the Beavers, especially after a heart breaking loss last week to UCLA. Ore. St has a salty D and ranks #15 against the rush led by DT S. Paea and LB K. Kristick, so Wash. will have to rely on QB J. Locher to get it done through the air. While the Huskies have improved from last year, this team is running on fumes and the Beavers have been hitting their stride. Ore St in a walk over. ORE ST 41 WASH 17

3. WISC -8.5 v. MICH This is another game where 2 teams are heading in opposite direction. The Wolverines enter this contest on a 3 game skid and have lost 5 of 6 after a great start. The boo birds are coming out for HC R. Rod and things look a little dicey in Ann Arbor. The Badgers seem to be playing their best ball right now and will have the motivational edge as they will easily remember how they blew the game to Michigan last year. Wisky was up 19-7 and gave up 20 points in the 4th quarter to lose 27-25. HC B. Beliema will not have to do a ton to have them ready to play this weekend. Michigan’s D is a total disaster ranking #89 in total D, #80 in rush D and #83 in pass D. Wisky is a very balanced O averaging 206 yds. on the ground and 198 yds through the air. The badgers will relay mainly on a 3 RB tandem of J. Clay, M. Ball and Z. brown to wear down the Wolverines. Also watch for young WR N. Toon (the son of former NFL WR Al Toon) as he ash made some huge receptions the past few weeks. As long as QB Tolzien can throw the ball to the right team, Wisconsin should not have a problem in this game. Also, Michigan comes in very banged up as QB T. Forcier and RB B. Minor are nursing injuries. Wisconsin has had a tendency this year to get way ahead and let teams back in the game late, but I am not sure Michigan has the will or the want to in this one. WISC 35 MICH 20

OBSCURE GAME DEGENERATE SPECIAL (TROY +14 @ ARK) I really like the Trojans catching 2 Tds here as they are a very talented team. Troy ranks #10 in total O and #7 in pass O while the Hogs rank #96 in total D and #116 in pass D. This should be a high scoring affair and I think Troy can match Arky score for score. ARK 42 TROY 37