It’s week 12 in CFB and the season is flying by. Only a couple of weeks left, then Championship Saturday followed by the bowls and the BCS NC game. Well, we are officially in a 2-2 rut, as the Locks went 2-2 ATS last week for the 5th straight week in a row bringing the overall total to 19-21 ATS. Still trying to get above .500. Last week we had easy winners on Ore St -13 over Wash. and Wisc. -8.5 over Michigan. Two bad losers (Miss St +13.5) as the Tide broke through the SEC Bye Week Theory (5-4 ATS in ’09) and dominated the Bullies and Troy (+14) got demolished in 2nd half by Arky. This week’s board does not have the marquee match-ups of weeks past, and the lines are getting sharper and sharper. However, I have a real good feeling  on the 4 games I chose this week.

I had a couple of people suggest to me that I was ducking the UT scandal or losing credibility by not mentioning it in last week’s letter. First, I am not sure what great value my take on it would be since everyone is well aware of my allegiances. Next, when did anyone ever accuse me of having credibility in the first place. Seriously though, it was a complete distraction that happened at the worst possible time. A few idiots could have ruined what could have been a decent first season for HC Kiffin. Right when the media had admitted to being wrong about Kiffin and several sources (SI, CBS Sportsline and ESPN) had Kiffin on top 10 list for coach of the year consideration, this incident blows up in his face. Predictably, the media jumped on the pile. When you stick your chin out there, the media is just waiting for the opportunity to knock it off. I am not sure what people expect me to say about this. It is a black eye, a distraction, but is it an overall indictment of Kiffin? Of course I would say “No.” I cannot think of one program who has not had similar or worse issues they have had to deal with. Have the 30 arrests effected Herban in Gunsville? Did the Penn St debacle last year get JoPa run out of town? At the end of the day, like almost all other coaches, he will be judged by Ws and Ls. The jury is still out on whether this has a lingering effect on the team or whether it will blow over. At present it has not affected recruiting (but NSD is 3 months away). I know rival fans love pointing the finger at other programs when they have problems arise but can any program (outside of Vandy ….oh, I forgot,  they had the steroid scandal in the 80s) say they are devoid of these types of issues? The question is, how does Kiffin handle it from here on out? And I am sure he will be criticized whichever way he goes, but that comes with the territory.    Now onto more important things ……. The Locks Lucky 7 this week are 1. Fla., 1. Bama, 1. Texas, 4. TCU, 5. Cincy, 6. GT, 7. Ore. Even with all the early upsets, it looks like we are headed toward a Texas versus SECC game winner for the BCS NC. This week’s Locks are:

1. OLE MISS -4 v. LSU      Man, is Vegas begging you to take LSU or what? The # 9 or 10 team is getting points? I really like Ole Miss in this spot. This is a huge game and will determine who is 3rd best team in SEC. LSU has won 6 straight over Ole Miss, but comes into this game beaten and battered (lost 5-6 players in Bama game) surviving a scare against LA Tech. In the past 2 games, LSU has given up 176 yds rushing (Bama) and 178 yds rushing (La Tech). That does not bode well for the Bayou Bengals as Rebel RB D. McCluster is on fire rushing for 282 yds. (TN), 186 yds. (Aub) and 123 yds (Arky) in his past 3 SEC games. The running game is taking pressure off of QB J. Snead and he is playing much better than he did earlier in the year. LSU lost a ton of starters in the Bama game (QB, RB, C) and it appears QB J. Jefferson will play but he is not 100 % (sprained ankle and bruised sternum). Last week back up QB J. Lee was horrendous going 7-22-105 yds against La Tech, and you can expect the Ole Miss DL to get after whomever is behind center. Ole Miss’ DL is fast and deep led by J. Powe, K. Lockett. M. Tillman, L. Scott and T. Laurent. Neither team yields many points (LSU #10 scoring D and Ole Miss #12 scoring D) but the Rebels seem to be playing with more pop and are at home where they have played better. OLE MISS 30 LSU 20

2. PENN ST -3 @ MICH ST   If Penn St is going to prove it is in the conversation as an elite team, then it needs to win this game and win it convincingly. There are still aspirations of a BCS game with a little luck, so Penn St has something to play for, while Mich St got bowl eligible last week after squeaking by Purdue (40-37) where they were out gained and out first downed. This game pits the #1 O in the Big 10 (Spartans) against the #1 D in the Big 10 (Nittany Lions). I’ll side with the D in this one. Penn St QB D. Clark has been very good in Big 10 road games (3) completing 65% for 675 yds/5 TDs/0 INTs while the Mich St Pass D ranks #94 in pass D and #99 in pass efficiency D in the nation. Penn St  also has a running threat as RB E. Royster has 990 yds/5.7 yds. a carry. Penn St is a brick wall against the run (#8 in rushing D) led by LB N. Bowman (12 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs and 1 INT for TD last week). The Spartans should find the sledding tough and will have to rely on Frosh QB K. Cousins for any offensive punch. I think Penn St is clearly the better team here and I am waiting for them to finally  show up and prove it. Crazy things have been known to happen in East Lansing, but I think Penn St cruises. PENN ST 30 MICH ST 17

3. SFLA -11 v LOUISVILLE  The Bulls are in their typical late season swoon as they have gone 1-3 after starting the year 5-0. The Cards are just in a funk and avoided the basement of the Big East by barely topping Syracuse (10-9) last week. HC M. Kraggthorpe is all but gone and the team knows it.  SFLa has run a gauntlet of tough games recently and will be looking to take out their frustrations on the hapless Cards. L’ville is averaging a whopping 18 points (#103 in scoring O and #93 in total O) a game this year and has been straddled with tons of injuries and a revolving door at the QB position. Having so little offensive output is a killer when facing a very salty Bull D led by DEs G. Selvie and J. Pierre-Paul, LB K. Wilson, S N. Allen and CB D. Murphy. I do not see how L’ville is going to keep up in this game. SFLa also will be able to pound away at the Cards (#67 rush D) with QB BJ Daniels and RBs M. Plancher and M. Ford. The Bulls will get back to their winning ways at home this week with an easy W. SFLA 31 LVILLE 10

OBSCURE GAME DEGENERATE SPECIAL   A couple of games jumped out at me this week for this pick. At first I wanted to take Fresno -9 against La Tech since Tech is winless on the road and played their hearts out last week. I still like Fresno, but there was another I liked better. Take LA MONROE -3 @ ULALA. This is probably a rivalry game as both are in the Sunbelt. Last year ULaLa ran for over 500 yds on Monroe. This year Monroe has the #25 rush D in the nation. Monroe also has the #30 rush O going against ULa La’s #94 rush D. Pay back is in order as Monroe wins easily. MONROE 27 ULALA 18