Coming down the home stretch of the CFB season looking for some winners. Once again last week we go 2-2 ATS for the 5th straight week (21-23 ATS for the year). The wins were on SFla (-11) covering by 1 over L’ville and Penn St. (-3) clobbering Mich St. Another bad beat as Ole Miss (-4) won but failed to cover and Les Miles is still not sure what happened. The OGDS took it on the chin as La Monroe lost SU to ULaLa. Since the OGDS is 0-3 the past 3 weeks I have decided to ditch it this week and add a bonus pick for the Iron Bowl. Its rivalry week and lots of interesting match-ups on this week’s card. I really liked a lot of games this week and had a tough time narrowing down my picks.

This week is one of my favorites …….friends, family, food and football. The games start Thursday and run through the week. Nothing like feasting for about an hour and a half, getting in front of the tube and watching the games with your family. No real changes this week and it looks like it is going to be SECC game champ versus Texas in BCS NC. I really think TCU could play with any of those 3 teams, and this year would be the perfect set up for a Plus 1 scenario. What we really need is an 8 team playoff to decide the NC. It makes more sense to have a playoff in CFB because not all of the teams play each other and SOS is very difficult to gauge. You could have a 2 loss team that is actually better than a team with 0 losses in CFB. What needs to happen is all 6 BCS conferences need to have a Championship game, the winner get into the playoffs. The highest ranked non-BCS team gets an automatic bid, and a Committee selects the best at-large team. That gets you 8 teams. Then the Committee would seed the teams 1-8, with the highest seeded teams (1,2,3 and 4) getting the 1st round game at their home field (makes the regular season worth a ton). The semi-finals and finals are played at neutral sites. I realize there would be arguments about who the at-large team is, but it is better to argue about which team deserves the at-large bid, than to let a popularity contest and a group of computers determine the 2 teams who make it to the BCS NC. This Week’ Locks Lucky 7 is relatively unchanged ……..1. Fla., 1. Bama, 1. Tex., 4. TCU, 5. Cincy, 6. GT, 7. Ore. Now onto the Locks.

1. UNC -5.5 @NCST The Tar heels are playing their best ball of the year. After losing a heart breaker to F$U on Thursday night last month, UNC is 4-0 with wins over VT, Duke, Mia (F) and BC. Going the opposite direction is the Wolf pack who beat Pitt in early Oct and has gone 1-6 since. The mis-match in this one involves TOs. NCST is #116 in giving the ball away and UNC is #9 in take aways. Last week UNC caused 6 TOs against BC and the week before they got 4 TOs from Mia(F). The Tar heel D is also very solid (#5 in Total D in nation) led by DBs R. Burney and D. Williams and LB C. Thomas. The NCST O is led by QB R. Wilson and RB T. Baker but things have not gone the way most expected this year. The Wolf pack OL is not opening many holes and has not been great at protecting Wilson. That is not good when you have a Tar heel D that is feasting on QBs and causing tons of TOs. On the other side of the ball, the NCST D has been banged up and hurt by key injuries. They have difficulty stopping the run (#56 rush D) and seem a little soft. UNC is not a juggernaut on O by any means but they have been efficient the past 4 games leaning on the running of RB R. Houston who is a load and the steady hand of QB TJ Yates and the play of WR G. Little. HC B. Davis was catching tons of heat after the F$U meltdown loss, but it seems as though UNC may get to 10 wins this year. The Wolf pack cannot go to a bowl this year, so there is a worry they come out psyched in their last game at home. However, I am not sure they have enough fire power to get it done.

UNC 27 NCST 13

2. PITT -1 @WVA (FRI) Another big rivalry game known as the “Backyard Brawl” which is appropriately named when these 2 tangle. Pitt has flown under the radar all year and stands with only 1 loss on the season (a 1 point loss to NCST). Wannstadt has to be given some HC of the year consideration. Pitt has a very balanced O that relies on both the run and the pass. Frosh. RB D. Lewis is the #6 leading rusher in the nation and QB B. Stull is the #4 rated QB for passing efficiency. The Panthers also have arguably the best TE in CFB in D. Dickerson. The un-sung heroes are the OL who have created big holes for Lewis and kept Stull clean all year. The Mountaineers’ D is not bad at all (#44 Total D) but has a tendency of giving up big plays and struggles against the pass (#64 pass D). The balance of the Pitt O (avg. over 400yds/game the past 3 games) should give WVA fits all day. On the other side of the ball, WVa has speed with RB N. Devine leading the way and QB J. Brown having an up and down year (11 TDs/8 INTs). WVa is avg. less than 300 yds their past 3 games on O. The Pitt D is rock solid (#12 total D and #16 rush D) and should contain Devine and put the game on Brown’s shoulders. As long as Pitt can limit big pass plays, they should be able to keep the Mountaineers under wraps. The final factor is HC B. Stewart for WVA is very shaky and can be counted on for 1 or 2 mistakes a game. PITT 31 WVA 21

3. SO CAR +3.5 v. CLEM Once again we have a rivalry game with teams headed in different directions. At first glance, I was liking Clemson a lot but something did not seem right. Why is a team which is on fire only favored by 3 or 3.5 against a team who is struggling? The Tigers have a huge game next week for the ACC Championship against GT. This will be Clemson’s first time to play in ACCC game and I expect most, if not all, of the focus to be on that game and to avenge the GT loss and get to a BCS game. That is a tricky scenario for a first year coach (HC D. Swinney) going into a hostile environment. There were no real statistical advantages for So Car, actually more for Clemson. So this is a gut play, plus the SEC Bye Week Theory is in play here as the Gamecocks have had an extra week to get ready for this one (SEC Bye Week Theory is 5-4 ATS this year and 70% ATS past 3 years). I like giving the Ol’ Ball sack an extra week to get a few trick plays in. The So Car D led by DE C. Matthews and LB E. Norwood have a combined 13 sacks this year. Clemson is led by RB CJ Spiller and he is a monster running, catching and returning kicks (scored at least 1 TD in every game he played this year). The weak link is at QB for Clemson as true frosh. K. Parker has had a very good 2nd half of the season. But he will find a rested and rejuvenated Gamecock D in which DC E. Johnson will dial up a few things to confuse the young QB. This just seems like a good spot for an upset. SO CAR 23 CLEM 21

4. IRON BOWL SPECIAL (BAMA -11 @ AUB) This one was not an easy one for me. I was looking for any reason to take the Tigers, Plainsmen, War Eagles in this one. The line has moved from -12 to -10 back to -11. I guess the sentiment is Bama may be looking ahead, and you are getting DD at home in a rivalry game. Plus, every time Aub. has been a home dog since 1999, the most they have lost by was 5 points (26-21 to LSU last year). They have been a home dog only a handful of times, but the fact is they are tough at home. Then I looked at the reality of the situation. Bama’s D is ridiculously sick. In the past 3 games they have given up an avg. of 6 points/game. Bama’s D is #3 in total D, #5 in pass D and #2 in rush D (70 yds. on the ground/game). They are led by LB R. McClain, DE M. Dareus, DT Mount Cody and CB J. Arenas. Auburn has a good O led by RB B. Tate and an underrated OL, but I am not sure where he is going to find room to run. QB C. Todd has been hot and cold and will need the game of his life to keep this one close. Auburn is coming off a bye week, and you can expect OC G. Malzahn to throw the kitchen sink at Bama, but I am not sure it will matter come the 4th quarter. The big differential comes on the other side of the ball, as Aub’s D is beat up and lacks depth, especially at LB and DB. The past 3 games the Aub D has given up an avg. of 27 pts./game, they are #88 against the run and #78 scoring D, not a recipe for an upset. Bama has played 3 SEC road games this year winning by 18, 19 and 28 points. Saban always has his team ready on the road. Throw in the fact that Aub is 2-5 ATS in the last 7 at home against Bama, and I have to buck the SEC Bye Week Theory and back the Tide in this one. BAMA 34 AUB 17

OTHER GAMES THAT ALMOST MADE THE CUT …… NEV +13.5, DUKE +4, ECAR -5.5, ARIZ -3.5, MARSH +1 and ARK +3.5

GOOD LUCK AND HAVE A GREAT THANKSGIVING