We are about to embark on a journey of 19 straight days of football every day except for Christmas Day. No wonder they say “it’s the most wonderful time of the year!” I plan on breaking down the bowl season into 3 parts. Part 1 will cover the bowls between Dec 19-30, and I will make my 5 favorite picks. I will also do a write up on New Year’s Eve of 5 more picks covering the remaining games (Dec 31-Jan. 6), and then I will do a special write up for the BCS NC game. Our last foray on Championship week netted another 2-2 ATS outing. The winners were Bama (+5.5) beating the Gates SU and GT (-1) squeaking by Clemson. The losers were Rutgers (-1.5) getting beat by WVA and Hou (-2.5) losing to ECAR. That brought the overall total this year to 24-28 ATS, and my first year in recent memory to go below .500 for the regular season.

Capping the bowl games is a completely different animal than looking at regular season match-ups, and I have learned this the hard way. While match-ups and mismatches are part of the equation, other factors play much more heavily during bowl season. The most important thing to look at is motivation. Which teams are excited about being at the particular bowl and which ones could care a less because they hoped for something bigger. This will play out in which team gives more effort and actually cares about winning the game. Teams that come into lesser bowls when expecting New Year’s Day or BCS bowls have not done well in the past. For example, bowl favorites coming off 2 or more consecutive losses to end the season are a dismal 7-21 ATS over the past 23 years (Pitt, Clem and U$C fall into that category). The next thing I look at is coaching. CFB coaches have different philosophies about their approach to bowl games. Some use it as a reward for the season, some use it as a mini-spring drills (15 extra practice days) to look at younger players, and some just like winning the game and will prepare accordingly. It is also important to look at past conference results and how different teams fare from different conferences. For example, SEC underdogs are an amazing 19-3 ATS the past 5 years (Ky, LSU and TN fit the bill). PAC 10 underdogs are 14-4 ATS (Stanford) and ACC dogs are 22-8 ATS (UNC, BC, F$U). Likewise, the Big 10 and Big East struggle as favorites. The Big 10 teams are 4-15 ATS as favorites in bowls and the BE is 8-13 ATS as favorites. The ACC falls apart in BCS games going 1-8 ATS this decade. The next thing to consider is injuries/suspensions. Since there is such a long layoff between the end of the regular season and the bowl games sometimes teams will get back key players. Also, this is the end of the semester for CFB teams and invariably you will have academic suspensions for players who do not pass the requisite minimum of 6 hours (now that is hard to believe, but watch it happens every year). Also, there will be some knucklehead who will get a DUI, break curfew or have dealings with an agent. After taking these things into consideration, then you look at the match-ups to confirm your pick. Now onto the bowl picks.

1. ORE ST -3 v. BYU (LAS VEGAS BOWL ON DEC 22ND) The Oregon St. Beavers have been one my ’09 horses this year, and I am not going to get off them with this short number. The Beavers closed the season on a 7-1 ATS run, and although they lost their last game to Oregon and a shot at the Rose Bowl, they are money in the bowl season winning 5 in a row (4-1 ATS). HC Mike Riley always has his team ready to play in bowl games, and a win against a decent BYU team would cap off the season where they were picked to finish in the bottom of the PAC 10. BYU is making its 5th straight appearance in Las Vegas and is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 bowl games. The Beavers have a very good O led by QB S. Canfield and the Rogers Bros. (Quizz and James) and are solid on D against the run (#25 rush D) and they have played a tough schedule. The Cougars shocked the world early beating Okla. in week 1 but the other 2 times they faced superior talent (F$U and TCU) they lost both by a combined score of 92-35. BYU is led by QB M. Hall and RB H. Unga and you do not have to worry about the Mormons running amuck in Vegas, but I do not think they have the athletes to match with Oregon St. Remember since this is a key number (3), but the half point to make it Ore. St -2.5. ORE ST 34 BYU 23

2. CAL -3.5 v. UTAH (POINSETIA BOWL DEC 23RD) The Cal Bears ended the season with a terrible loss to Washington, but I like this Pac 10/Mtn. West match-up. Cal has won 4 straight bowl games under HC Tedford and Utah is on an amazing 8 game bowl streak (usually has a heavy underdog), but I think the streak for Utah ends here. Utah has a true frosh at QB (Wynn) and that usually spells disaster in bowl games. Cal’s weakness is on pass D, and I doubt Wynn can exploit it (Utah #55 pass O). The Utes are a solid club that is not really flashy and relies on its running game with RB E. Wide and AA LT Z. Beadles. Cal has a stout run D (#27 rush D) led by all Pac 10 LB M. Mohamed and DE T. Aluala (7.5 sacks) and can slow down Utah’s attack and pressure Wynn. On offense, Cal usually goes as it QB K. Riley goes and will need a solid game from him. They also may get back RB J. Best who was on a pace for AA recognition until his injury. Even without Best, RB S. Vereen can do work and is a tough runner with breakaway capabilities. The Bears will want to get the bad taste out of their mouth from their last game, and taking a business trip down the road to San Diego will be perfect for them. This is also a fade of B’ham sports writer Charles Hollis who picks games (SU and not ATS) as he ahs Utah as an upset winner. Good ol’ Charles was 8-7 picking just the winners last week, so I like my chances here. Buy the half point to make Cal -3 here. CAL 30 UTAH 21

3. UNC +3 v. PITT (MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL DEC 26TH) This game fits the bill for a ton of the angles and trends mentioned above. First, Pitt enters this game as a favorite off 2 straight losses (WVA and Cincy) where their hopes for a BCS bowl bid were dashed on consecutive last second plays. Now they get the Meineke Car Care bowl in UNC’s back yard of Charlotte ….. where is the motivation? Favorites in bowl games coming off 2 or more straight losses are 7-21 ATS over the past 23 years. Also, as stated above, the ACC is 22-8 ATS as a dog over the past 10 years, and the ACC is 5-1 ATS in this particular bowl game since 2002. The Big East is 8-13 ATS as a favorite over the past 10 years, and Pitt under HC Wannstadt (the ‘stache) is on an 0-3 SU/ATS losing streak in bowl games. The Tar Heels have a very salty D (#6 Total D, #13 scoring D, #9 rush D and #15 pass D) that creates turnovers (28 turnovers). The Panthers have had a great year with frosh RB D. Lewis (#3 rusher avg. 137 yds/game) but I cannot trust QB Stull in this situation (4 INTs in last 2 games). I think Pitt will be going through the motions in this game and thinking about what might have been. The Tarheels will have the home crowd in their favor along with HC B. Davis trying to build a foundation at UNC. Buy the half point on a critical number to make UNC +3.5. UNC 26 PITT 20

4. KY +7 v. CLEM (MUSIC CITY BOWL DEC 27TH) The Clemson Tigers come into this game off 2 straight losses and are the favorite (7-21 ATS). The Tigers had hopes of a BCS bowl crushed by GT on Championship Saturday, and the week before they were blown out by So Car. So now we are getting a full TD and KY, ok I’ll bite. SEC underdogs are 19-3 ATS, and KY under HC Brooks are bowl darlings for backers, as they have covered their last 4 bowl games. Clemson is a miserable 1-6 ATS in its last 7 against the SEC and 1-6 ATS in their past 7 bowl games. However, this is HC Swinney’s first bowl game so we will see how he does. This game is a re-match of the 2006 Music City Bowl where the Wildcats came in as an 11 point dog and won outright. Clemson starts a true frosh (K. Parker) at QB which is another dagger for a bowl team. The Tigers do have RB CJ Spiller who can change a game in a heartbeat, but KY has its own “do it all” player in WR/KR/QB R. Cobb. Also, the Wildcats will be getting healthy as they will return at least 2 starters to the OL and possibly All SEC DB T. Lindley. With this game being played in Nashville, the Wildcats will enjoy a home field advantage, as I cannot see a ton of Clemson fans being fired up to go to Nashville when they had much bigger “sugar plums” dancing in their heads for the Holidays. This game is also on a critical number (7), so buy the half point and make it KY +7.5. I do not think you will need it.

KY 28 CLEM 24

5. TEXAS A&M/UGA OVER 65 I thought I would throw in a total as this one jumped off the page at me. The line opened at 64 and I think will continue to rise, so get it early if you can. The Aggies boast one of the most prolific offenses in CFB with a #5 total offense ranking averaging 34 pts/game. If anyone watched the Texas game, you know that QB J. Johnson is very, very good. The Bulldogs can also put points on the board averaging over 28 pts/game in a defensively tough minded SEC. The word is that WR AJ Green will be 100% for this game so that will help. While the offenses are good for this total to go over, they key is both teams have bad defenses. A&M is ranked #104 in scoring defense giving up an avg. of 33 pts/game. The Dawgs are not your Daddy’s UGA defense giving up close to 27 pts/game. UGA also canned its DC W. Martinez and 2 defensive assistants so the game planning and play calling on D will be out of whack. This looks to be a track meet with the team having the ball last possibly winning the game.

UGA 45 A&M 40

OTHER GAMES I LIKE BUT DID NOT MAKE CUT ….. CFLA/RUT UNDER 44.5, SO MISS -4, NEV/SMU OVER 72, OHIO -2.5 WISC +3 AND IDAHO +2