The Geek Sheet SEC preview

Below you’ll find our projections for each SEC team and how that compares to their actual performance last season.  We have two separate projections that we run each off season to predict how a team should perform this upcoming season compared to last season based on a myriad of factors that include stability in the coach staff, returning letterman, returning starters by position, pre-season all Americans, all-conference, percentage of rushing and receiving yards returning, etc.  The analysis is broke down into offensive and defensive projections as well as the net differential (Total Offense / Total Defense).  Not surprisingly UF and Alabama topped that net differential chart last year as well as this year.  From there are projections support most of the consensus projections with Auburn and Arkansas basically a coin flip for #2 in the West and UGA and South Carolina in virtually the same situation in the East.

This is a pretty rudimentary analysis for projecting final results as scheduling becomes a huge factor, particularly in the SEC.  Auburn has a really favorable away schedule drawing the Mississippi’s, Kentucky, and Alabama on the road, as well as avoiding UF in the east rotation.  Arkansas also has a pretty favorable draw avoiding UF in the east, but has difficult road games at South Carolina, UGA, and Auburn.  For that reason we’ll give the Tigers the nod as #2 in the West.  The rest of the West is a bit of a crap shoot, but I do think this will ultimately be Les Miles swan song in Baton Rouge as the Bayou Bengals will grossly underperform again this year, and with the Jeremiah Masoli wildcard in Ole Miss and what appears to be an improving coaching staff in Starkville it might get really ugly for The Hat.  I’ll call for LSU #4, Ole Miss #4, and Miss St #6 but think those teams are a lot closer than people give the Mississippi’s credit for.

I am also going to nod with UGA as the #2 slot in the East, mainly because South Carolina draws the top 3 West teams (Alabama, Arkansas, and Auburn), as well as having to travel to Florida.  UGA has a much more favorable draw with road games at Miss St, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Auburn and doesn’t have to face Alabama.  Who knows what to make of the balance of the east, but if I am a betting man I’d put my money on a long road back to prosperity for Tennessee compared to a quick bounce back for the younger Dooley.  I think Kentucky will continue to perform well, and has a pretty decent draw with both the Mississippi schools and Auburn in the east, and gets UGA, South Carolina, and Auburn all at home.  The season finale at Tennessee could ultimately determine who finishes #4.   I’ll Lean with UK #4, UT #5, and Vandy as the cellar dweller.

I think we are in for a pretty exciting year, and with Bama facing a pretty tough road schedule (at Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee and LSU) as well as the mid-season UF show down I don’t think it is a cinch for them to win the West (although they are certainly the favorite).  I do think UF cruises in the east, with their only other SEC road games being at Tennessee and Vandy.  In the end I’ll call for UF to beat Bama in Atlanta, and for both teams to be in the National Championship hunt late into the season regardless of who wins the regular season showdown.

Offense

Defense

Net Differential (Total Offense / Total Defense)