Loser with Socks

“Making fun of Alabama fans is like hunting dairy cows with a high powered rifle and scope.”
P. J. O’Rourke
Clay Travis on FineBaun

We are about to embark on a journey of 19 straight days of football every day except for Christmas Day. No wonder they say “it’s the most wonderful time of the year!” I plan on breaking down the bowl season into 3 parts. Part 1 will cover the bowls between Dec 19-30, and I will make my 5 favorite picks. I will also do a write up on New Year’s Eve of 5 more picks covering the remaining games (Dec 31-Jan. 6), and then I will do a special write up for the BCS NC game. Our last foray on Championship week netted another 2-2 ATS outing. The winners were Bama (+5.5) beating the Gates SU and GT (-1) squeaking by Clemson. The losers were Rutgers (-1.5) getting beat by WVA and Hou (-2.5) losing to ECAR. That brought the overall total this year to 24-28 ATS, and my first year in recent memory to go below .500 for the regular season.

Capping the bowl games is a completely different animal than looking at regular season match-ups, and I have learned this the hard way. While match-ups and mismatches are part of the equation, other factors play much more heavily during bowl season. The most important thing to look at is motivation. Which teams are excited about being at the particular bowl and which ones could care a less because they hoped for something bigger. This will play out in which team gives more effort and actually cares about winning the game. Teams that come into lesser bowls when expecting New Year’s Day or BCS bowls have not done well in the past. For example, bowl favorites coming off 2 or more consecutive losses to end the season are a dismal 7-21 ATS over the past 23 years (Pitt, Clem and U$C fall into that category). The next thing I look at is coaching. CFB coaches have different philosophies about their approach to bowl games. Some use it as a reward for the season, some use it as a mini-spring drills (15 extra practice days) to look at younger players, and some just like winning the game and will prepare accordingly. It is also important to look at past conference results and how different teams fare from different conferences. For example, SEC underdogs are an amazing 19-3 ATS the past 5 years (Ky, LSU and TN fit the bill). PAC 10 underdogs are 14-4 ATS (Stanford) and ACC dogs are 22-8 ATS (UNC, BC, F$U). Likewise, the Big 10 and Big East struggle as favorites. The Big 10 teams are 4-15 ATS as favorites in bowls and the BE is 8-13 ATS as favorites. The ACC falls apart in BCS games going 1-8 ATS this decade. The next thing to consider is injuries/suspensions. Since there is such a long layoff between the end of the regular season and the bowl games sometimes teams will get back key players. Also, this is the end of the semester for CFB teams and invariably you will have academic suspensions for players who do not pass the requisite minimum of 6 hours (now that is hard to believe, but watch it happens every year). Also, there will be some knucklehead who will get a DUI, break curfew or have dealings with an agent. After taking these things into consideration, then you look at the match-ups to confirm your pick. Now onto the bowl picks.

1. ORE ST -3 v. BYU (LAS VEGAS BOWL ON DEC 22ND) The Oregon St. Beavers have been one my ‘09 horses this year, and I am not going to get off them with this short number. The Beavers closed the season on a 7-1 ATS run, and although they lost their last game to Oregon and a shot at the Rose Bowl, they are money in the bowl season winning 5 in a row (4-1 ATS). HC Mike Riley always has his team ready to play in bowl games, and a win against a decent BYU team would cap off the season where they were picked to finish in the bottom of the PAC 10. BYU is making its 5th straight appearance in Las Vegas and is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 bowl games. The Beavers have a very good O led by QB S. Canfield and the Rogers Bros. (Quizz and James) and are solid on D against the run (#25 rush D) and they have played a tough schedule. The Cougars shocked the world early beating Okla. in week 1 but the other 2 times they faced superior talent (F$U and TCU) they lost both by a combined score of 92-35. BYU is led by QB M. Hall and RB H. Unga and you do not have to worry about the Mormons running amuck in Vegas, but I do not think they have the athletes to match with Oregon St. Remember since this is a key number (3), but the half point to make it Ore. St -2.5. ORE ST 34 BYU 23

2. CAL -3.5 v. UTAH (POINSETIA BOWL DEC 23RD) The Cal Bears ended the season with a terrible loss to Washington, but I like this Pac 10/Mtn. West match-up. Cal has won 4 straight bowl games under HC Tedford and Utah is on an amazing 8 game bowl streak (usually has a heavy underdog), but I think the streak for Utah ends here. Utah has a true frosh at QB (Wynn) and that usually spells disaster in bowl games. Cal’s weakness is on pass D, and I doubt Wynn can exploit it (Utah #55 pass O). The Utes are a solid club that is not really flashy and relies on its running game with RB E. Wide and AA LT Z. Beadles. Cal has a stout run D (#27 rush D) led by all Pac 10 LB M. Mohamed and DE T. Aluala (7.5 sacks) and can slow down Utah’s attack and pressure Wynn. On offense, Cal usually goes as it QB K. Riley goes and will need a solid game from him. They also may get back RB J. Best who was on a pace for AA recognition until his injury. Even without Best, RB S. Vereen can do work and is a tough runner with breakaway capabilities. The Bears will want to get the bad taste out of their mouth from their last game, and taking a business trip down the road to San Diego will be perfect for them. This is also a fade of B’ham sports writer Charles Hollis who picks games (SU and not ATS) as he ahs Utah as an upset winner. Good ol’ Charles was 8-7 picking just the winners last week, so I like my chances here. Buy the half point to make Cal -3 here. CAL 30 UTAH 21

3. UNC +3 v. PITT (MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL DEC 26TH) This game fits the bill for a ton of the angles and trends mentioned above. First, Pitt enters this game as a favorite off 2 straight losses (WVA and Cincy) where their hopes for a BCS bowl bid were dashed on consecutive last second plays. Now they get the Meineke Car Care bowl in UNC’s back yard of Charlotte ….. where is the motivation? Favorites in bowl games coming off 2 or more straight losses are 7-21 ATS over the past 23 years. Also, as stated above, the ACC is 22-8 ATS as a dog over the past 10 years, and the ACC is 5-1 ATS in this particular bowl game since 2002. The Big East is 8-13 ATS as a favorite over the past 10 years, and Pitt under HC Wannstadt (the ’stache) is on an 0-3 SU/ATS losing streak in bowl games. The Tar Heels have a very salty D (#6 Total D, #13 scoring D, #9 rush D and #15 pass D) that creates turnovers (28 turnovers). The Panthers have had a great year with frosh RB D. Lewis (#3 rusher avg. 137 yds/game) but I cannot trust QB Stull in this situation (4 INTs in last 2 games). I think Pitt will be going through the motions in this game and thinking about what might have been. The Tarheels will have the home crowd in their favor along with HC B. Davis trying to build a foundation at UNC. Buy the half point on a critical number to make UNC +3.5. UNC 26 PITT 20

4. KY +7 v. CLEM (MUSIC CITY BOWL DEC 27TH) The Clemson Tigers come into this game off 2 straight losses and are the favorite (7-21 ATS). The Tigers had hopes of a BCS bowl crushed by GT on Championship Saturday, and the week before they were blown out by So Car. So now we are getting a full TD and KY, ok I’ll bite. SEC underdogs are 19-3 ATS, and KY under HC Brooks are bowl darlings for backers, as they have covered their last 4 bowl games. Clemson is a miserable 1-6 ATS in its last 7 against the SEC and 1-6 ATS in their past 7 bowl games. However, this is HC Swinney’s first bowl game so we will see how he does. This game is a re-match of the 2006 Music City Bowl where the Wildcats came in as an 11 point dog and won outright. Clemson starts a true frosh (K. Parker) at QB which is another dagger for a bowl team. The Tigers do have RB CJ Spiller who can change a game in a heartbeat, but KY has its own “do it all” player in WR/KR/QB R. Cobb. Also, the Wildcats will be getting healthy as they will return at least 2 starters to the OL and possibly All SEC DB T. Lindley. With this game being played in Nashville, the Wildcats will enjoy a home field advantage, as I cannot see a ton of Clemson fans being fired up to go to Nashville when they had much bigger “sugar plums” dancing in their heads for the Holidays. This game is also on a critical number (7), so buy the half point and make it KY +7.5. I do not think you will need it.

KY 28 CLEM 24

5. TEXAS A&M/UGA OVER 65 I thought I would throw in a total as this one jumped off the page at me. The line opened at 64 and I think will continue to rise, so get it early if you can. The Aggies boast one of the most prolific offenses in CFB with a #5 total offense ranking averaging 34 pts/game. If anyone watched the Texas game, you know that QB J. Johnson is very, very good. The Bulldogs can also put points on the board averaging over 28 pts/game in a defensively tough minded SEC. The word is that WR AJ Green will be 100% for this game so that will help. While the offenses are good for this total to go over, they key is both teams have bad defenses. A&M is ranked #104 in scoring defense giving up an avg. of 33 pts/game. The Dawgs are not your Daddy’s UGA defense giving up close to 27 pts/game. UGA also canned its DC W. Martinez and 2 defensive assistants so the game planning and play calling on D will be out of whack. This looks to be a track meet with the team having the ball last possibly winning the game.

UGA 45 A&M 40

OTHER GAMES I LIKE BUT DID NOT MAKE CUT ….. CFLA/RUT UNDER 44.5, SO MISS -4, NEV/SMU OVER 72, OHIO -2.5 WISC +3 AND IDAHO +2

via email from Joel Barker

1) There was a clique of players that were not serious about
preparation, and it was a core group that we are not used to thinking of
in this way. They are players we are accustomed to being serious-minded
and to handling their affairs in a mature way. This did not happen.
There was a large scale emotional/mental breakdown of discipline on the
part of several players that caused a rising lack of focus beginning
with preparation for FSU, and continuing through SECCG prep.

2) From a source close to the team: word spreads among teams and
coaches in the SEC faster than it does in public via the media, and
Bama’s staff and players knew that many key UF players were not taking
preparation seriously, but were on the other hand focused on their own
and not the team’s wellbeing. While it can’t be proven, someone whom I
trust stated that several key players “lost their hunger to be
champions” when they began to get within sight of the NFL, and were
listening to some very bad advice. TT (the ultimate competitor) was, in
fact, livid at these kids with divided loyalties, and his anger erupted
(as much as it ever could with him) in the locker room confronting the
commitment of these players to winning (pre-SECCG). During the game he
was pressing to make up for their lack of intensity, effort. That group
of players is likely gone (to a man). We may see the return of one D
star who lost his focus simply because his draft value is now
questioned. The team came out of the tunnel looking flat because a lot
of this stuff erupted on the trip to the game site and in the hotel. The
team looked flat because it WAS flat. Division and mutual suspicion
doomed them before kickoff. I was told by one source that he’d “never
seen Tim so angry at other players.”

3) I was told that there was a players meeting among some of
these core contributors prior to the FSU game discussing NFL prospects
and determining the list of who would be coming out and who wouldn’t. A
“core group” of players determined that they would all come out
together. It was determined in this meeting that some kids would be
minimizing their risks in the coming games. Some were offensive and some
were defensive players. The impact of the looming rookie salary cap had
a huge effect on the mentality of some players. The coaches were aware
of some of this, but not the full extent, and there is only so much you
can do even if you know, short of benching starters. Some of these were
absolutely critical players we were counting on to come through, and
simply quit on the team.

4) Urban is glad for the coming cap and hopes it has some teeth,
because he is bitter about UF’s player attrition and feels that the NFL
is harming his program inordinately. UF is on national TV every day
(playing or not), and the NFL buzz starts very early here (yes, earlier
than elsewhere where the media glare is less intense). He is a realist
and understands that the NFL is a draw/dream for a lot of these kids who
grew up with making it to the league as their goal, but feels that the
inordinately high 1st round money is damaging college football, and
particularly damaging the teams that are more in the media glare. He
feels that with the cap, kids will likely be making more conservative
decisions on coming out early, as there will be less lure in an attempt
to make that one, big life-changing score -missing out on the full
college experience and damaging the team with divided commitment.

5) Urban has had a difficult time this year keeping the
mentality of the team managed. There have been some divisive parents
(which always happens when you have as much talent as we do). Complaint
about playing time, and locker room jockeying/division. Sometimes when
you have players for as long as some have been here, and they are of a
certain background/mentality, you lose them at the end. We had a star
player we “lost” at the end of the year last year. Sometimes it happens
with kids who are a handful of weeks from being millionaires, who have
been working their rears off for years, and who see light at the end of
the school tunnel.

6) In some ways you could say we were a victim of our own
success. Yet unlike some other schools, UF is a fishbowl, and a star
mentality can (and did) develop with some key players. There were 3 whom
I will not mention specifically who were literally “saving themselves”
for the NFL, and had decided not to take any chances on injury. Spikes
was not among them. He is a warrior. If you looked at him carefully, you
saw a frustration in his eyes during the championship game, in that he
knew there were players who were not going full out. He’s been in their
faces this year, but there is only so much you can do when they have an
“entourage” of hangers on whispering in their ears about how rich they
soon will be -people positioning themselves to be “advisors.” You get a
whole bunch of new friends when you are about to become a millionaire.

7) So yes, some of the team “quit” after the SEC schedule. The
partying was a symptom of that. Certain star players got a kind of
entitlement mentality as they got closer to the draft and it spilled
over into our final games. Urban thinks that it is touch and go whether
we can get them re-focused for the bowl game. A loss would not surprise
me with as widespread as the “relaxation” got. Urban may end up benching
some starters if he can’t get them focused on trying to win the bowl
game. You may see some OL and O skill stalwarts sitting for the bowl
game. Don’t be surprised.

One thing I can assure you is this: UF is going back to a
blue collar mentality, and the stardom thing will be nipped in the bud.
He is not going to tolerate a prima donna atmosphere to develop here,
because it is what poisoned the last coaching outfit: all talent and not
much heart. And there are some tolerant coaches on our staff who will be
replaced with drill instructor mentalities to purge the program of
entitlement. Offseason conditioning is going to be the most brutal ever,
and there are NO (as in zero) “starters” at this point. Even more so in
the past, everyone except John Brantley III will earn it. John is the
future, and except for one more game, this is his team now. Competition
for playing time will be fierce.

9) There have been some slackers this year, members of the
clique, who have not taken to doing the things well that are not quite
as glamorous, but that contribute to a fundamentally sound team. At
least one of those kids is gone.

10) There were what I will call “negotiation and transition”
distractions for members of our coaching staff during SECCG prep week
that we had tried to fend off during the season, but at last came to a
head, the interested party being eager to get their replacement named to
save a recruiting class. We were bombarded with calls the 2nd half of
the season with inquiries about our DC, and this had a definite effect
on the focus and concentration of some of his kids. Urban was passive on
the sidelines because he a) knew the outcome already and b) was already
ill and growing more so as the game went on. As you’ve come to find out,
he takes his job very seriously and he’s very good at it. But he needs
to take a step back get some rejuvenation. It was a long haul this
season with the expectations and the attitudes. The locker room has not
been a fun place lately. One of the things that Brantley brings to the
table is a cool confidence that is infectious. he know’s he’s just one
flick of the arm away from a score at any moment. UF has very serious
talent in the WR corps that is simply immature, and will bring in
another haul this year. No worries in that area. WR’s want to play with
Brantley (which is not damning TT with faint praise). But there is an
enthusiasm you see in recruits when we flip on the Brantley film.

11) The good news is that we have been managing the probable
transition with recruits for some time now, and the names of potential
candidates have been shown to defensive recruits. So this was managed
and massaged from way back, and it was handled in a very conscientious
manner. There will be some minor fallout from the loss of Strong, but
nothing considered critical I’m told.

12) I’m currently being told that despite what I was told in the
past, UF is looking to perhaps go outside of the fold for a DC. Someone
to fully implement Urban’s defensive philosophy is being sought. Mac and
Heater are thought to have the minds/mentalities necessary, but are
perhaps too close to/immersed in Strong’s philosophy to bring fresh
insight. It is also possible that we lose one or two on that side of the
ball to L’ville, so a contingency plan is in place. Strong will be the
de facto DC at L’ville, but he will need a DC for organizational
purposes. So we might lose some coaches there. I would worry most about
Bedford, who is considered a wizard as a position coach. Brady has
mentioned some of the candidates, but I’m told that the list is slightly
longer than what related. Internal candidates will be considered, but it
is thought that UF needs fresh blood on the D side of the ball, and more
of a “general” than a Sergeant Major (which is not a comment on Strong).

13) While there are those with program contacts who assure me it
is not the case, I’m told by a couple of people I trust to look for
changes on the offensive side as well. Strong is thought to want to go
in a different direction offensively and will not poach our staff to any
great degree, but in a pinch he may turn to men he’s comfortable working
with and whose character he knows.

14) There is a candidate list being floated on the offensive
side of the ball. You will be told that it isn’t true. It will be denied
to high heaven, but there is a very strong chance we have a different OC
next year. I’m told Urban wants to get back to his roots offensively,
and that he feels we’ve made too much of a departure from the principles
that got us to this pinnacle. Look for a bit more razzle dazzle next
year, and an OC comfortable with flinging the ball around the yard is
being considered. They are not departing from spread principles -far
from it. But they will examine how they got away from what made them
successful, and may bring in a spread “Jedi Master.” If you don’t think
Urban “works that way” then you a) Are forgetting what happened to
Hevesy and b) You are underestimating the commitment Urban has to
winning. Personal loyalties will not be permitted to retard the program.

15) The “program” is thought to have taken a minor hit with the
loss/dissension and selfishness that showed itself at the end, but Urban
is actually excited to shake things up a bit a get back to roots. All
our recruits are thus far still on board. There is still a TON of talent
on this team, yet it is talent that needs to mature and needs to have
greater accountability than some of our stars showed late in the season.
I’m told that there is a sense of urgency/purpose in the staff that is
dedicated to staying.

16) I will come out with a full DC prospect list, but I’m told
that John Pease is still on that list (but is considered perhaps too
long in the tooth), and several “star” names along with several dark
horse candidates. The likelihood is that we bring in both a LB coach and
a DC unless we can get a two-fer. The position is too important not to
have a specialist there. Nix is at the top of the list. Trigger could be
pulled very, very soon on that.

25 Pics of American Pie Girls
http://moondogsports.com/2009/ 12/17/marina-orlova-still- making-me-hot-for-words/

Dear Kyle:

However, even though the Tennessee Volunteers boast a storied history and have many things going for them, the current incarnation of the Big Orange is awful. The Vols are a terrible football team. Simply stated, they suck.

And we just lost to them . . . badly. They beat us worse than they beat the Ohio Bobcats.
Tennessee Volunteers 45, Georgia Bulldogs 19: Hitting Rock Bottom on Rocky Top – Dawg Sports

Do you want the bad news or the good news first? Ok, Ohio is a better team than UGA. The good news? I lied to your dumb ass, there isn’t any good news. Listen up Dawg, I like the surge in your game, its headed down. Richt is soft, your team is soft. let me be blunt: Richt is a poor man’s Fulmer minus the National Championship. That doesn’t justify you trying to treat your smarter, more well-endowed Vols brothers like the shit on the bottom of Cutcliffe’s shoe, so show some compassion and stop being mean and posting shit that aint true!

Now you advocate moving us out of the East to the West? Good idea, then you wouldn’t have to play us every year….Could Big Ten Expansion Force the SEC to Bring In a New School? – Dawg Sports

Oh and I forgot to tell you, Lane Kiffin killed UGA….Bitch

regards

Jai

Tennessee Volunteers 45, Georgia Bulldogs 19: Hitting Rock Bottom on Rocky Top – Dawg Sports

You Red Elephant fellers need to rediscover Jesus…..or you will roam for eternity as the cheaters that you are…..The Lord will forgive you for being a Roid.

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Same guy?  Maybe a few extra pounds.

25 Strippers Failing
Vivid Offers $1 Million To Any Tiger Woods Mistress To Star In Porn Film | MoonDog Sports

Vols, Bitch

We buttfuck Virginia Tech.

I cannot wait. I have to hear these fucking assholes trash Tennessee almost every day – now they have to play us.

I hope the players and coaches know how much this game means to me. They fucking better. They better be hitting twice as hard as they would if they were playing Florida or Bama. I want Virginia Tech and her miserable fuck javelin fans to be absolutely embarrassed at the ass whipping Tennessee is destined to put on the Hokies (again).

The Hokies do have a chance since we are not ranked in the top 10. Goiter-ball chokes on ranked opponents, 10-35 is Goiter’s record…sad.  The real reason why Bud Foster, VPI DC, isn’t leaving is because he is overrated. A veritable white cracker version of Charley Strong, just less successful. Virginia Tech Defensive Coordinator Bud Foster Isn’t Going Anywhere – Gobbler Country

Make it so.